Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Oryxslayer]

Is this a realistic hypothetical Election map, Wisconsinites? A Generic Dems wins by 2%

No. Northern Central Wisconsin should be redder, and central Wisconsin could be bluer. Racine is a big question mark, and places like Brown could end up surprising us.

How about this?

That's pretty good. Flip Marathon and put Adams, Juneau, and Racine in absolutely tossup territory and flip Marquette, and we have a fair approximation of what might happen.

I'm going to add that St. Clair seems to have undergone a massive shift since Trump, voting just a little right of the results in both mid-term contests it has gone to the polls. Under a 2% generic D win I doubt it flips, but maybe a 3-4% one.

[Oryxslayer]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

Rule one of conventions in 2018 - they are an extreme unrepresentative sample of the ideology of the electorate. Remember, Romney lost his convention, but will probably win the primary by 70%.

[Oryxslayer]

Agree with you on St. Croix, that county has strangly moved a bit to the left since 2016. Doubt it goes for Evers, but I would be shocked if Baldwin doesn't carry it.

[Oryxslayer]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

Washington looks like it hold on for a while but Ozaukee will vote democrat statewide in a non landslide election by 2036 atleast.

Evers won Ozaukee last year in a non-partisan race.

Mind you that was a landslide election, but the point is still somewhat true. Traditional D landslides always swept everything but WOW+a few SW counties, so Ozaukee breaking that historical alignment was noticeable. I'm interested in seeing how firmly Ozaukee voted for Grothman, considering that race was somewhat competitive.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1113258029439377408

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1113258344758882305

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/fox11news/status/1113262821859581952