Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Oryxslayer]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.

Wow, that's pretty surprising. Haven't been following it really closely, so why is Lega looking to support Draghi?

Gotta be part of the clique that's going to spend those sweet, sweet EU bucks.

In all seriousness, I'm not entirely sure what Salvini is thinking here. I guess he's seen that being in opposition for the past year or so didn't work out for him like he'd hoped, so maybe he's trying to recapture the magic of the yellow-green government (although the practical situation will be very different). There is also still a pro-business (and thus pro-EU) wing within the party, so perhaps he's afraid of alienating it too much.

Or maybe he wants to ensure the technocratic government gets set up so he can attack it as an unresponsive tool of insiders...despite him backing it of course. There's also the thought that he wants to delay elections to a period when PD is out of govt, cause Lega had a bigger lead and PD was doing worse when he was the junior partner - though that is ignorant of a bunch of other developments since then. Or he just doesn't want a vote now during Corona.

[Oryxslayer]

My impression was always that the support for Lega in the polls was weak, but not in the traditional sense. Lega, as a northern party, was never a perfect fit for the southern conservatives and populists, but after the decline of Forza it was the only horse in town. The FdI have now stepped into that vacuum.

[Oryxslayer]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

[Oryxslayer]

Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

I mean, Meloni should be Draghi's successor in that case... unless the other parties on the right decide to break the alliance unconditionally, which still seems far-fetched.

Oh of course Lega's downfall is also spectacular (and hilarious)... but it's less catastrophic in many ways.

Why is Lega's decline funny? Their lost voters appear to be going 1:1 to FdI which: is another right-aligned party, will likely run together with Lega when the next general election occurs, and may not be that different from Lega besides geography of support.

[Oryxslayer]

So unless something changes, the reconstituted Conservative alliance is likely going to end up make Meloni PM...right? Yuck.

[Oryxslayer]

So unless something changes, the reconstituted Conservative alliance is likely going to end up make Meloni PM...right? Yuck.

I assume the Right-wing alliance of Fdl Lega and FI will have a deal where the leader of the largest of the 3 becomes PM.  If so I wonder if both Fdl and Lega might de facto undermine each other during the campaign and the voting in a race to be the bigger party.

They had that sort of deal in 2018, and it was a complete upset that Lega topped the alliance: polling for months had FI up by 2-4 points and the final result flipped that margin in favor of Salvini. I don't exactly remember how the alliance members treated each other, but the Right-wing did win that election, it just broke up following the populist surge to give the people the coalition it appeared they wanted.

But if PD and M5S are gonna run separately then I have a hard time seeing the Right-wing parties not get a large majority. Both former govvernment partners have enough of a base to prevent total tactical voting consolidation during the next few months. Maybe the major narrative will focus on who will be in the conservative  government and who leads it if victory seems assured though.

[Oryxslayer]

This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

To this end, I wonder if it is Berlusconi's or FI's interests to join an alliance with Lega and FdI. Obviously their action at the confidence vote doesn't suggest it is likely, but the poor yet stable state of FI polling compared to their Right-wing partners suggest that there is a constituency who are explicitly not opting to leave FI. The maximum political advantage might be gained by running separate of the populists (but maybe with some of the minors) on a "both sides/reasonable right" platform that wins votes separate of the bigger coalition but gains the leverage to squeeze them at the negotiating table.

Or maybe this is the exactly wrong take to have, and running alone will cause the remaining FI voters to flee in response to the fear of a wasted vote. We'll see what happens when the lists get registered.

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

Different backgrounds and approaches.

Lega was at one time the Northern League, a separatist/regionalist party for the economically advantaged north. This meant that the people who have long had a pro-League voting habit were all in the North. Salvini took over a party in disarray and declining identity in 2013 and reoriented it towards the cultural Far Right. He changed the name and revived it's fortunes, but most of their voters were still northerners.

During Conte I government, Salvini was the tail that wagged the M5S dog. Lega surged, eating up a chunk of the FI vote and a larger portion of the M5S vote. These were southern voters checking out an unfamiliar party that was saying the right stuff. We saw this to a degree in the EU elections with Lega winning almost 35% on its own and pushing down the peninsula geographically.

FdI has until now been a minor party. They have a reputation as 'nostalgic fascists' similar to VOX in Spain mainly because the party has not been big enough previously to define itself other than by its small cadre of voters and its predecessors. It was founded as a split from Forza and a merger with the old National Conservative AN (Alleanza Nazionale), so that influences so of its programs. FdI and the national conservative predecessors historically had a base in central Italy when compared to other conservative parties. Meloni is certainly more vocally culturally conservative on non-immigration issues than her allies.

FdI has remained in opposition during the entire 2018-2022 period, despite the populist Conte I government and the Draghi Grand Coalition. This made it attractive as Salvini fell out of favor and lost his southern vote, and then as the other Conservative parties entered the grand coalition. Those who were never quite at home with Lega but want a rightward turn - including the geographic element -  have now gone FdI.

Also Salvini, like Zemmour in France, wasn't painted in the best light following Putin's invasion of Ukraine, whereas FdI appears to have navigated that issue similar to Le Pen. But that is just one cause of many behind the evolution of the conservative vote.

[Oryxslayer]

I see the coalition of chaos is forming, let’s see if they flop as hard as NUPES or like the Hungarian mess.

There's a big difference between NUPES, which underperformed but only about as badly as the shambolic rightist government it exists to A-Log did, and the Hungarian disaster. A center-left-to-left pole doing relatively as well in the Italian context as NUPES did in the French one would be on the rosier side of expectations.

Yes, barring a reversal (on the part of both partners) and reconfiguration of the PD-M5S alliance, there just arn't the votes for PD + minors to do anything else than lose with dignity. M5S at this point still has a clear identity and platform distinct from everyone else, so its hard to imagine the electoral squeeze occurring as voters go to the bigger alliances...and not all if forced to choose would pick the PD's alliance over the conservatives.

[Oryxslayer]

Hom many is not important, is what the point
not all the seats are the same

Yes, this is important given that sometimes these pacts give one group a bunch of the safest seats, or a different group the guaranteed losses. I'm sure Lega will for example get a lot of the north, just given their historic base and current decline.

However, this is only the second major FPTP election in recent history. Last time M5S snuck in and swept the south, and now they will be lucky to get anything. This time is looking like a conservative majority, but with limited data to pull from, only a portion of the seats can be decidedly assumed to be safe for left or right. And depending on the coalition the conservatives might just sweep all but the Left's strongholds - as suggested by a some of the potential alliance models - at which point seat distribution south of Rome won't even matter. So it all seems a bit up in the air.

[Oryxslayer]

It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).

Is FdI the most pro-Europe/pro-NATO rightist party at this point?

More that I feel their friends on the right have deeper/older ties with Putin and Russia. So they just end up looking good by comparison in a weird way. This happened earlier in the year with Salvini getting the flack when Putin attacked Ukraine (photos of him in that shirt didn't help) and the FdI getting enough wiggle room to make the pivot in support of Ukraine.

[Oryxslayer]

  In the recent city elections didn't the center left candidates do pretty well, even though nation wide polls were about the same as they are now. In other words, did they overperform polling?

In certain case yes, in some no. Locals are generally still local.

But the more important factor is that a lot of - but not all - major cities here favor the center-left alliance when compared to the national vote.

[Oryxslayer]

What’s the difference between Lega and FdI? Aren’t they both RW populist parties?

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

Different backgrounds and approaches.

Lega was at one time the Northern League, a separatist/regionalist party for the economically advantaged north. This meant that the people who have long had a pro-League voting habit were all in the North. Salvini took over a party in disarray and declining identity in 2013 and reoriented it towards the cultural Far Right. He changed the name and revived it's fortunes, but most of their voters were still northerners.

During Conte I government, Salvini was the tail that wagged the M5S dog. Lega surged, eating up a chunk of the FI vote and a larger portion of the M5S vote. These were southern voters checking out an unfamiliar party that was saying the right stuff. We saw this to a degree in the EU elections with Lega winning almost 35% on its own and pushing down the peninsula geographically.

FdI has until now been a minor party. They have a reputation as 'nostalgic fascists' similar to VOX in Spain mainly because the party has not been big enough previously to define itself other than by its small cadre of voters and its predecessors. It was founded as a split from Forza and a merger with the old National Conservative AN (Alleanza Nazionale), so that influences its programs and traditions. FdI and the national conservative predecessors historically had a base in central Italy when compared to other conservative parties. Meloni is certainly more vocally culturally conservative on non-immigration issues than her allies.

FdI has remained in opposition during the entire 2018-2022 period, despite the populist Conte I government and the Draghi Grand Coalition. This made it attractive as Salvini fell out of favor and lost his southern vote, and then as the other Conservative parties entered the grand coalition. Those who were never quite at home with Lega but want a rightward turn - including the geographic element -  have now gone FdI.

Also Salvini, like Zemmour in France, wasn't painted in the best light following Putin's invasion of Ukraine, whereas FdI appears to have navigated that issue similar to Le Pen. But that is just one cause of many behind the evolution of the conservative vote.

[Oryxslayer]

This poll showed up in my feed, and I actually like it a lot. Its a poll of party support by geographic region just with an additional step. PD+ is roughly evenly dispersed, FI and Lega are concentrated in the north as suspected, M5S is still strong in the south but FdI has surpassed them and will no doubt sweep a lot of the FPTP seats.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1562751236486856709?s=20&t=YCCoOBtEM...

[Oryxslayer]

Why is the right currently so insanely popular?

More M5S is both seen as part of the left block after the past few years, but is not accepted as part of that alliance.

[Oryxslayer]

What is Azione/IV, what makes them different from the PD and why are they not part of the center-left alliance?

Renzi leads IV. I think that's all that needs to be known.

[Oryxslayer]

Links: (if anyone finds any more, esp. live results maps, please post - thanks)

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20220925/votantiCI

https://www.raiplay.it/dirette/rainews24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVB_Wx5T16g

https://www.la7.it/dirette-tv

https://www.corriere.it/

https://www.repubblica.it/

Corriere has a result map similar to last time that should be live updated - you just need to click past the paywalled pages to get to the results section: https://www.corriere.it/elezioni/risultati-politiche-2022/camera.shtml

[Oryxslayer]

LA7:

FdI: 25% (23 - 27)
PD: 20% (18 - 22)
M5S: 15.5% (13.5 - 17.5)
LEga: 11.5% (9.5 - 13.5)
Forza: 7% (6 - 8 )
A-IV: 7% (6 - 8 )
AVS: 3.5 (3 - 4)
E+: 2.5% (2 - 3)
Italexit: 2.5% (2 - 3)
No Moderati: 1.5% (1 - 2)

Right Block lead similar to pre-election polling at 43 to 47% vs 25 to 29%.

[Oryxslayer]

Does the rightwing block need Berlusconi's votes for a majority?

Right now the Right would need "the big three" of FdI, Lega, and Forza but could dump the micro-party handers on if desired. But:

This seems more or less in line with the last few polls. Bad, very bad, but not outright catastrophic.

Now let's wait for the actual results, because historically exit polls in Italy got it wrong plenty of times.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1574149035602108421?s=20&t=9uxUHkOHp...

Sicily

[Oryxslayer]

Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious!  

I mean Berlusconi, PD, and M5S all had their time at the helm and were unable to right the countries many economic wrongs during the last/ongoing economic crises. Whether correct or incorrect, there is a segment of voters who see 'we've tried everyone else.'

[Oryxslayer]

Sky/YouTrend exit poll
Senate:
House:

What is Estero?

Others. Almost certainly the German regionalist party in Trentino/Sudtirol.

Edit: I thought you were referring to Altri.

[Oryxslayer]

5/60,399

RIGHT: 165 (61.34%)
LEFT: 41 (15.24%)

Interesting the first precinct (poll? circumscription? commune?) on the official site is a PD lead one from Reggio Emilia.

[Oryxslayer]

1st senate projection from SWG:

Conservative Alliance: 43.3%
Center-Left Alliance: 25.4%
M5S: 17%
A-IV: 7.9%

[Oryxslayer]

Is Meloni anti Russia

Much more than Salvini and Berlusconi. Arguably a feature of leading a 'young' party that had few former politicians, so policy planks could be easily shifted. Comparatively, Salvini pre-Invasion was openly Pro-Russian system (the image of him in a Putin shirt is a classic one) and Berlusconi has a history with Putin from his days as PM, a history that may have prompted the recent comments on "the leadership in Kyiv."

[Oryxslayer]

Is Meloni anti Russia

Much more than Salvini and Berlusconi.

So would you say out of the 3 , she is the lesser evil .

Maybe on this current issue. Certainly not on a number of other ones. It certainly prompted a number of pre-election articles I saw on how the EU should support Meloni corral her allies.