Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not well versed in the riding by riding numbers, so I will say:

PC 37.5%
NDP 36.5%
LIB 19.5%
Greens 4%
Other 2.5%

PC majority, and it won't be close, 15 to 20 seat gap between NDP and PC.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

Uhhh... There are two Thunder Bay-Atikoan's on the list, is that intended?

[Oryxslayer]

I posted this in the main thread, but here is EKOS's prediction mapped:

[Oryxslayer]

Hex maps for later tonight I made - Toronto really distorts the whole thing.

Also, god some ridings names are long.

[Oryxslayer]

I was quite a bit off on both predictions, but I don't think anyone was expecting such a huge majority for the PCs..

In the end, it wasn't *that* huge or unexpected, especially considering the final (herded?) polls.

But I do find that a lot of polling predictors seemed to be pointing at a 76-to-40 type of result out of a much smaller vote differential than the 7-point margin that actually transpired...

Well, polls put the NDP much closer to the PCs. However, we talked a lot before about the NDP vote inefficiency, and that was why 70-40 was constantly getting called. Most people expected the NDP to have a high floor (many safe seats) but a hard ceiling to push through (Voter self-packing). If we give 5% of the vote to the NDP on a universal swing (2.5 each from PC/Lib, now 38-38.5-17) the NDP only gains 10 seats to put the chamber at something like 67-50-6-1, despite them winning the popular vote.