Rust Belt/Appalachian House Races Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any reason why Cook and some people here are saying PA-14 is Likely R? It seems safe to me, and I haven't heard of a candidate running there who could make it competitive.

Cook doesn't like to call flips safe for some reason. They have PA-05 as Likely D even though everyone knows it is a free flip.

Because once a seat becomes safe, it vanishes from their list of tracked seats on maps and charts. The seats remain likely so you can see at a glace what is flipping. In comparison DDHQ had two Fairfax VA HoD seats similarly rated Safe D, and you always had to do finger match because they were not accounted for.

[Oryxslayer]

Something else of course to be taken into account is that Morganelli is to the Lehigh Valley like Tim Holden used to be for Schuylkill. Insanely popular in his seat, but not to liked outside the region for his rightish views. I have a hard time seeing Moganelli loose.

My response in another thread when Morganelli came up. I don't like the guy as well...but he will win easily.

[Oryxslayer]

What an odd group to put together.

It's odd but it isn't at the same time. Rural central/western Pennsylvania and rural eastern Ohio have a lot in common with West Virginia and Kentucky. Columbus and the Philadelphia area definitely do not, however.

I wouldn't have included Michigan, fwiw. That strikes me as more of an overtly Midwestern state.

If we're trying to get as much of the US into small groups as possible (5ish) then I came up with this:

West "Coast" - CA/OR/WA/AK/HI
Southwest - AZ/UT/NV/CO/NM
Mountain West - ID/MT/WY/ND/SD
Great Plains - TX/KS/OK/NE
Midwest Central - MN/IA/WI/IL/MO
Midwest Eastern - MI/IN/KY/OH/WV
Southern Dixie - LA/MS/AL/TN/AR
Sun Belt - FL/GA/SC/NC/VA
East Coast - MD/NY/NJ/DE/PA
New England - ME/NH/VT/CT/MA/RI

Your dividing them up by Geography, Not by the number of house seats - which is why the initial groupings make sense, even though they are a little weird.