Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Oryxslayer]

Hopped in here from my twitter coverage...why are you still talking about the SweDems? This is a bigger story:



One. Seat.

[Oryxslayer]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

Also you are ignoring reporting biases. The important thing to note is the combined left is down about 3%, and the combined right is standing still/up a tiny bit as of now. Compared to 2014 this puts the parties almost tied, matching exit polls that put the alliance ahead by 1 seat.

[Oryxslayer]

As of right now:

Combined right is +0.8 on 2014, Combined left -3. Projecting to 2014 results gives us a margin of 0.4% between the two blocks. Which is why the race is to close to call.

[Oryxslayer]

0.4% between the Blocks, 2 seats...

[Oryxslayer]

Quick map of the leading block by Constituency, that I whipped up in 5 min. Arguably the more important map because S's strength as a party means that they will always be winning the majority of a first-party map. I got more local maps that I am gradually posting on my twitter below.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I don't know. You can't let people vote and vote over again only because the result is not pleasent.

Well when Spain did it, multiple elections just proved that very few voters change their mind shortly after an election. Issues have to change before voters can bring down the hammer.

[Oryxslayer]

Then there is the obvious option - M+C+L+KD with outside support from left, or S+MP+V with outside support from right. These are the simplest governments but they require a whole lot of brinkmanship until one side blinks, something I am not sure either player wants right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Ulf Kristersson announced today that he gives up on the idea of an Allianse government backed by the Social Democrats, which has been obviously impossible from the start. He said he would now talk to the other Allianse parties to figure out the way forward. He ended with saying that his goal remained forming an Allianse government. This must just be an internal signal to the Allianse parties that he remains loyal to the idea of the Allianse, because it seems very hard to see how such a government should be formed. The Centre Party and Liberals will not sit in a government requiring votes from SD, and SD will not support a government with these two parties. Both the Liberals and Center seem to prefer to drag this government formation as far out as possible, perhaps as a way to make their potential cooperation with the Social Democrats go down easier ("we tried all other paths" etc.). The Liberal leader Jan Björklund even said that the Allianse should start talks with the Greens about support. This seems bizarre. Not only would that require a lot to convince the Greens, who have better options, but also because support from the Greens isn't enough to form a government, it would require an additional party.

Another problem I see is that if C+L just back a S govt, it still lacks a majority. Such a govt would require either outside support from V - which means C+L have to bite a bullet, or M. If M is providing outside support, it begs the question of why not just reversing S and M's positions (Alliance govt-KD) won't work. Any govt that is comprised of M+C+L+S is going to be a moderate one.

[Oryxslayer]

Left Party or the Moderates (or Christian Democrats, although it's IMO more unlikely for them to abstain than for the first two parties) would have to abstain in the confidence vote to let through such a government.

I think the Left Party could very well do that. They haven't rejected this possibility, and with the Allianse no longer willing to be support parties for a red-green government, it is hard to see better options for the Left Party. It is difficult to see left-wing economic policies being enacted with the current parliamentary composition (unless the Left Party opens for cooperation with SD, haha), but a S-C-L-MP could at least ensure many migrants and significant measures on environment and climate. And if the result of the government's economic policies edge too close to the neoliberal dystopia propagated by C and L, the Left Party will still be independent enough to pick up a lot of S and MP voters.

The problem with this I think is that it depends upon V, which would be a hard pill for C+L to swallow.

[Oryxslayer]

Most recent attempt at government (M + KD, with outside SD support) was voted down as well.

Well that was always going to fail. Onto the next potential govt.

[Oryxslayer]

The problem with SD as I understand it is that they are a untrustworthy negotiator. While we place them on the far right, like every other anti-migrant party, their views cross the spectrum and make either bloc really not want to work with them. The Right sees SD's economic and day to day policies as basically S-lite, but only for Swedes. This won't work at all for their tax-cutting day-to-day policies. The left meanwhile sees the anti-migrant pro-swede policies of SD as unworkable within their platform of inclusion. This also ignores the fact that multiple parties, including the deciding L and C, were elected on fiercely anti-SD platforms. There is presently no workable government that would willingly include SD, which is why that option is off the table.

In a similar fashion though, I have long felt that V is what will prevent a Left+L+C govt. Like the SD, they would probably be outside the govt, but still have key influence over policy thanks to their votes. Its hard to see why parties on the fiscal right would sell out and accept a govt that tacitly has support from former communists. The only way I could see this working is if C+L got a larger presence in govt - say the Loof PM proposal, but with V specifically demanding Lofven, this I suspect will fail.

Which might mean new elections, and begs the question will SD go up or down. At first glace it seems obvious the anti-establishment parties will increase, but then you remember voters in these 'tied govt' scenarios are semi-rational actors. Like in Spain, voters might migrate from the unwavering parties (albeit temporarily) towards their preferred govt to try and break the impasse.

I don't get Björklund at all. Joining a government with the Social Democrats seems like guaranteed electoral suicide for the party.

I think he sees the L vote tottering at 4%, and prefers entering govt with the Left and having some influence, to losing votes in a subsequent election and falling out of parliament - resulting in no influence.

[Oryxslayer]

Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

The vast majority of Swedes voted for parties that completely reject working with the Sweden Democrats. So part of democracy is to respect that. If at some point over 50% of Swedes vote for the neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats then they will have earned the right to govern. In the meantime, the other parties are under no obligation to work with them.

The SD have not much to do with the Nazis and 2018 is not 1933.

There are some far-right parties that are in government (or were), also in Scandinavia, such as FrP, True Finns, DPP, FPÖ, Lega, Bolsonaro and the Trump-GOP - who all show that it's possible to govern with them (even if you do not agree with their policies).

If far-right parties are constantly ignored, their supporters will only become more and more disappointed in the democratic system and more agitated and radical and eventually will throw out the elitist system of mainstream parties in a wave election (as seen in 2016 and this year in Brazil).

Taking into account those voters and embed them in the democratic system will signal to them that they are taken seriously and that they are not seen as 2nd class voters by the elitist, detached mainstream parties and voters who think they are the best and nobody else.

Besides, polls have shown that voters (not the party leadership !) of the Swedish Moderates, KD and Liberals are slightly in favour of starting coalition talks with the Sweden Democrats, so your point is wrong.

I agree with most of your points but your conclusion is wrong, at least right now. As I said above, both the Left and the Right see the Sweden Dems as having too much of the other side to be a loyal partner. They are not really a radical right party, more a anti-immigrant left party. Two, the liberals won't join a SD govt, that's a recipe for party collapse. So the M+KD+SD lacks a majority. The third thing as you pointed out is small majorities support negotiation. Thats not a recipe for success. That's a recipe for losing the half that opposes SD to C - it already kinda happened when M tried to tack right and say they were open to SD supporting govt.

[Oryxslayer]

If the demands are met, V considers the govt too right wing. If the demands aren't met, L+C leaves. I don't see how this isn't designed to fail.