Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Oryxslayer]

Edam-Volendam doing something weird. Its one of only a few areas where the PVV improved on 2017, and its in the heart of Holland. FvD and JA21 made gains comparable to elsewhere, it was the CDA which fell off. Any explanations?

[Oryxslayer]

Most are asleep at this point so I'll leave this and sign off: all the larger municipalities and some of the smaller ones are noting that these results are only preliminary counts based on usually >80% of the vote. More votes will be counted later, bumping up the more urban parties. This includes Rotterdam which expects a long delay on any results.

I only not this because it appears turnout is down on the results site in a lot of places at first glace, and the votes are nowhere near their final total in 2017 despite the comparable turnout numbers. 

[Oryxslayer]

Rotterdam finally posts, D66 on top, rather unimpressive results for JA21 and FvD considering this was a good city for PVV previously.

[Oryxslayer]

Ow sorry, i thought that was a bug that only applied to me. And I also don't know how to change that image haha. But i'm glad a moderator did.

Here's what I do when I post an image and it breaks the formatting: click edit again and then change [img] to [img width= x] with x being a pixel size that doesn't break things, usually 700/800 depending on the image.

[Oryxslayer]

I presently posses a spreadsheet with all the preliminary results. I must stress the preliminary nature, for example it doesn't appear Amsterdam ever posted a second update after they reported their initial one based on 85% of votes, and currently the city is reporting 70K less votes than 2017. However if there are any particular comparison maps anyone wants, go ahead and ask.

[Oryxslayer]

Example of the preliminary nature of the urban count: The Hague. A post-election update added 8K votes to VVD, 9K to D66, 5K to PVV, etc. So the numbers both aren't final and the urban parties are going to net votes. The percentages barely moved but the gainers were D66, GL, FvD, PvdD, BIJ1, and VOLT.

[Oryxslayer]

Chart number two really shows why the CDA, PvdA, and now SP keep dropping seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Arguably one of the more interesting maps I made with the preliminary data.

[Oryxslayer]

Another peculiar one. Urban and commuter areas for D66, the old bases of support still stand with the CDA, the periphery and certain industrial areas go for the PVV, and the Bible belt is increasingly visible.

[Oryxslayer]

The Circuit is having a field day speculating who is after Omzigt and why. CDA deny it flatly, but people in CDA internally say he is only out for his own image and not a team player. Rutte also doesn't like having people undermine government but (obviously) publically denies wanting to sideline Omzigt

I am wondering if this means CDA is out of the picture for the coalition.

It's mathematically hard but not impossible to get a Govt without the CDA. The VVD and D66 would basically need to include some minor party, probably VOLT, alongside the GL-PvdA pair which would greatly benefit D66's power when it comes to coalition policies. It's interesting that it's Rutte who wants Omzigt out given MP math, maybe its his precondition for the party before accepting them back into the coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

And an Omzigt breakaway scenario is already polling at 23 seats, which means nothing of course, but also says everything. Omzigt is now a symbol.

That poll's hypothetical is F-ing weird BTW. Hype is hype, relevancy is relevancy, but then there is "my personality party will pull votes from everyone." So yeah, a relevant symbol.