German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

My feeling is that Merkel wants to continue the grand coalition. Assuming she does, is there any scenario where she would have to form one with the FDP? Possibly internal pressure from the party?

I personally think Jamaica is the most likely, largely because the SPD base/politicians won't go for another coalition. Merkel probably wants smaller coalition partners because, they are easier to dominate in the way she has done arguably since 2005. Back when we were polling the Union at 40%+, there was a debate over Greens or FDP, with the conclusion that Merkel probably prefers the greens, while the party probably prefers the FDP. Under Jamaica, both are satisfied.

[Oryxslayer]

Germany (Sachsen-Anhalt): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 36.2%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 37.2%
2017: 37.3%

Germany (Hamburg): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 48.9%
2017: 50.8%

Germany (Thuringia): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 55.6%
2017: 50.9%

Germany (Bremen): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.5%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Hesse): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.0%
2017: 45.9%

Okay, so who do we think is surging of the turnout? Its not SPD, or else Hamburg and Bremen would be higher then Thuringia. Its not AFD, or Meklenburg-Vorpommern would be higher. I'm personally leaning towards a Linke/Green/FDP surge...

[Oryxslayer]

The state of Rheinland-Pfalz also reports high turnout (+8% compared with 2013, incl. postal ballots).

http://www.meine-vrm.de/politik/rheinland-pfalz/rheinland-pfalz-verzeichnet-deutlich-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung_18202453.htm

Thats CDU territory at the national level...no?

[Oryxslayer]

The state of Rheinland-Pfalz also reports high turnout (+8% compared with 2013, incl. postal ballots).

http://www.meine-vrm.de/politik/rheinland-pfalz/rheinland-pfalz-verzeichnet-deutlich-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung_18202453.htm

Thats CDU territory at the national level...no?

14/16 states voted for CDU/CSU the last time, only Hamburg and Bremen for the SPD.

But the SPD is usually pretty strong in Rheinland-Pfalz as well.

Yes I know the CDU  won everywhere. I am asking because in 2013,  the CDU matched their national vote there and in 2009, they overpreformed in pfalz compared to the nation.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any site on the list that will show the results on a map as they come in?

Will this site http://wahlatlas.net/btw/17/   do that?

Bloomberg has a nice map for us english speakers, I assume it will be updated as the votes come in.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-german-election-results/

[Oryxslayer]

CDU:32.5
SPD: 20
AFD:13.5
Linke: 9
green: 9.5
FDP: 10.5
other 5

[Oryxslayer]

Jamaica is the only option with these numbers - the SPD is too low to justify another Grand coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

Jamaica it will be. Schwesig (SPD) just ruled out another Grand Coalition on behalf of the entire SPD leadership and after 12 years in opposition the Greens will be power hungry enough to accept.

Makes sense with these results.

Exactly what I have been thinking all time...

[Oryxslayer]

Result is relatively similar to the polling aggregate from a year ago (aside from the FDP):

except you know... the FDP.

[Oryxslayer]

Where we can find official results?

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2017/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

Well, nothings out yet then....

[Oryxslayer]

Shultz speaking.

[Oryxslayer]

Schultz announces no more grand coalition - Tells Merkel to form Jamaica. Also says to fight for Saxony. (AKA no talks until Oct. 15)

[Oryxslayer]

Also says to fight for Saxony. (AKA no talks until Oct. 15)

Lower Saxony

Ooops, my mistake.

[Oryxslayer]

FDP Lindner now speaking.

[Oryxslayer]

I assume by Merkel's record, both the FDP and Greens will fall out of parliament next election?

Considering this is Merkel's last term in government,  the landscape will be much different come the next election.

[Oryxslayer]

Weidel speaking.

[Oryxslayer]

AfD calls for an inquiry into Merkel and her handling of the refugee crisis...though who would give them the support in the opposition to carry out such a inquiry? Only perhaps Linke.

Ironically, this sounds a lot like Clinton v Chaffetz.

[Oryxslayer]

Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

There doesn't appear to be any results though....

[Oryxslayer]

Please tell me how Jamaica will not be suicide for the Greens.

Because when Merkel leaves the scene at the end of this government, there will be a scramble to pick up the voters who used to back her. The Greens will no doubt pick up some of them.

[Oryxslayer]

Elephant round table happening now.

[Oryxslayer]

Elephant round table happening now.

Are you German?

No, watching DW livestream.

[Oryxslayer]

First direct mandate:

SDP wins in 167: Waldeck
SPD 30.9
CDU 30
Linke 7
Green 6.9
FDP: 9.9
AFD: 11.7

Second:
CSU wins in 240: Klumbach

SPD 17.7
CSU 43.4
Linke 4.8
Green 5.9
FDP: 7.7
AFD: 13.4

[Oryxslayer]

Daggendorf. Weilheim, and Rottal-Inn are easy CSU holds.

BTW, Waldeck was a SPD gain from 2013 - not that it matters with the alternative vote.

[Oryxslayer]

I just came home. Is there a map of results by municipality or region? I'm sorry if this was posted already.

http://wahlatlas.net/btw/17/#!wkrGewinner17

We got 5 direct mandates in, 4 of which are CSU.

[Oryxslayer]

I just came home. Is there a map of results by municipality or region? I'm sorry if this was posted already.

http://wahlatlas.net/btw/17/#!wkrGewinner17

We got 5 direct mandates in, 4 of which are CSU.

Those are not final results yet, only current vote count.

Here's the official vote count, currently after 7 (out of 299) completely counted constituencies.

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2017/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

I don't see the difference, on their map - they have the same 7 seats as projected.