OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Oryxslayer]

Well, Cordray's certainly getting in late... Had us all worried for a couple of months that TD's timeline wasn't a vision of the future.

[Oryxslayer]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

Yeah, I've basically come around to voting for Cordray in the primary -- though I still like Joe better -- and he really doesn't deserve Moms Demand Action's (non-)endorsement.

ION: Democrats have a 25,000 vote lead in primary votes thus far. For those curious, in 2006, when Strickland beat Blackwell by nearly two-to-one, there were 800,000 votes in the contested D primary and 825,000 votes in the contested R primary; in 2010, when both Strickland and Kasich went unchallenged in the primary, there were 630,000 votes in the D primary, and 745,000 votes in the R primary; and in 2014, where Kasich was uncontested and FitzGerald faced only token opposition, there were 440,000 votes in the D primary and 560,000 votes in the R primary.

I'm doing a nice post on my twitter - and probably here as well tomorrow, which includes a Town-by-town map of the 2010 race between Corday and DeWine which took forever to create because Ohio never participated in the pre-2010 tigerline project and lack precinct shapefiles for the race. The fact that Rs tend to always have a primary advantage is something I have discovered as a trend - the last time Dems won was 2008 with the competative obama v clinton race.

[Oryxslayer]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

Yeah, I've basically come around to voting for Cordray in the primary -- though I still like Joe better -- and he really doesn't deserve Moms Demand Action's (non-)endorsement.

ION: Democrats have a 25,000 vote lead in primary votes thus far. For those curious, in 2006, when Strickland beat Blackwell by nearly two-to-one, there were 800,000 votes in the contested D primary and 825,000 votes in the contested R primary; in 2010, when both Strickland and Kasich went unchallenged in the primary, there were 630,000 votes in the D primary, and 745,000 votes in the R primary; and in 2014, where Kasich was uncontested and FitzGerald faced only token opposition, there were 440,000 votes in the D primary and 560,000 votes in the R primary.

I'm doing a nice post on my twitter - and probably here as well tomorrow, which includes a Town-by-town map of the 2010 race between Corday and DeWine which took forever to create because Ohio never participated in the pre-2010 tigerline project and lack precinct shapefiles for the race. The fact that Rs tend to always have a primary advantage is something I have discovered as a trend - the last time Dems won was 2008 with the competative obama v clinton race.

Link your twitter if you don't mind

Now in sig

[Oryxslayer]

You didn't want a cross post, so I (obviously) won't post the whole 20 map story. However, the capstone is very relevant to November - the 2010 Attorney General Race by township.

[Oryxslayer]

Cordray did really well that year, especially when compared to other candidates. Strickland didn't come close in Hamilton, and tied in Franklin. Cordray crushed in the latter, matching obama, and tied in the former. Where he failed is his inability to keep the many Strickland voters in the SE from voting for DeWine - even though he did nice there for a dem.

[Oryxslayer]

One of the things that I took away from my map analysis was how much Cordray has a base in Franklin and the greater Columbus metro, not just the south county. His average race saw Franklin match Cuyahoga in margins at a time when dems were struggling to win the county. And if we compare to Obama (who did better then most of the Ohio 2010 dems) Cordray barely looses the county and crushes Obama's margins in the surrounding counties. I don't think Delaware is going to become a Dem county anytime soon, but Cordray's appeal to the metro + Clinton margins in the county could flip it in a dem victory scenario.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/08/us/elections/results-ohio-primary-elections.html

Results page. You have to scroll down a bit to hit the Statewide races though.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls are closed for the primary

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/994001751509491713

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/994002579037282304

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently Schiavoni has won Manhoning/Trumbull counties early vote, but you wouldn't now if you looked an NYT's map.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently Schiavoni has won Manhoning/Trumbull counties early vote, but you wouldn't now if you looked an NYT's map.

It's a subtly different shade of blue. Very weird color scheme.

They probably weren't expecting Schiavoni to win any counties.

Someone got the message and now his turquoise is more differentiated.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT calls for Cordray, probably calls for Dewine soon as well.

In other news Issue 1 has 77% support among Ohio voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Swearingen doing better than Kucinich is something I did not expect from tonight.

As an aside, primary vote totals don't look good for Democrats for the general.

Ohio R's always do better in the primary - even in 2006 they won the vote, and then got blown away in November. The last time in a long time was the 2008 presidential where dems did better then Rs...and then R's dominate furthur and furthur back. Once all counties, including dem Franklin and columbus, we will see where the totals stand. If dems come close or beat Rs, we are in for a wave.

[Oryxslayer]

DeWine gets his call.

[Oryxslayer]

Taylor has been flipping counties but still holding steady at 40%. 60-40 gap probably remains in place.

[Oryxslayer]

Ohio Governor GOP Primary Map Explained:



Left is the 2016 Presidential primary, red is Kasich while orange is Trump. Right is 2018 gubernatorial primary, blue is DeWine, red is Taylor.

The GOP 2018 gov primary was essentially DeWine=Kasich, Taylor=Trump, except Taylor didn't have Trump's regional base in the southeast so her vote wasn't geographically concentrated. DeWine, like Kasich, was strongest in urban areas and the northwest. Taylor's pro-Trump strategy sort of worked, but she was just way too unpopular with the rest of the electorate (the vast majority). Also DeWine appealed to Trump primary voters too.

This. Her coalition is basically the Trump one, minus a bunch of voters so it looks disconnected. But that doesn't explain Erie - does she have a running mate or any history there? Or is DeWine hated in Erie? Or is it just a one off result?