Wisconsin Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

Please remember how things go (or used to go) in Wisconsin: dem leaning areas tend to come in later in the night, with republicans pulling out ahead early.

[Oryxslayer]

Was voter 46 at 8 am in Madison Ward 9. Machine projected 2600 votes at that location based on AM turnout.

I doubt it lasts or maybe the machine was off, but that projection would put it at amound Presidential level of turnout.

Wisconsin, and the entire upper midwest as a whole tends to have higher turnout then the nation in every comparable election. I recall a piece from the 2006 midterm coverage discussing how Minnesota was expecting turnout just below presidential years because of the regions culture and tradition regarding elections.

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ has results out of Milwaukee County:

Rebecca Dallet (Unaffiliated)     71.3%   5,868
Michael Screnock (Unaffiliated)     28.7%   2,357

15% of the vote there

71% in MKE? If that holds, this is a landslide.

Election results site now has this as well. 71 out of 479 precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

Current main site numbers

121/193 Waukesha 34365 to 18489 Scre
231/479 Milwaulkee 29526 to 12966 Dall
101/121 Kenosha 8021 to 6252 Dall
Rock early vote 1098 to 932 Dall

[Oryxslayer]

Current main site numbers

121/193 Waukesha 34365 to 18489 Scre
231/479 Milwaulkee 29526 to 12966 Dall
101/121 Kenosha 8021 to 6252 Dall
Rock early vote 1098 to 932 Dall

Update

11/50 Ozaukee 3201 2203 Scre
1/51 Dodge 7006 to 5074 Scre
158/193 now in Waukesha 44059 to 23917 Scre

[Oryxslayer]

That looks pretty bad for Dallet in Western Wisconsin. But I think Dane county will overpower that.

Please not we have now <200 total votes in each county that isn't southeast, so please check your overconfidence for either canidate in that region, with 1-3 precincts each so far.

[Oryxslayer]

Ok, this might actually be a problem. Most of Milwaukee county is in, and Dallet is only leading there 66-34. Moderately worse margin than both Clinton and Obama.

Screnock got 37% there in the primary and still 'lost' by like six points statewide.

Don't feed the troll

[Oryxslayer]

Guys, I'm not trolling. I literally just posted that Dallet was pummeling Screnock in Dane county. I just was pointing out that she's underperforming in Milwaukee.

I don't know what parts of Milwaukee are in, but bear in mind that it is a heavily segregated city.

Nearly everything, we knew from the 'primary' turnout that the counties minorities don't turnout in this extreme-offyear elections.

Dems, like Dallet tonight will win off 2016/18 cycles via dane rather then Milwaukee.

[Oryxslayer]

Lol the GOP is gonna get BTFO'd in Wisconsin

30.9% Precincts Reporting 21:43 PM ET
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
NP   
Dallet, Rebecca   
224,771   
57.95 %   
NP   
Screnock, Michael   
163,112   
42.05 %

Ehh it will probably go down, nearly everything out right now is rurals/smalltowns with a bit of Dane and Washington, which will probably be a modest Dallet win since its Wisconsin.

[Oryxslayer]

What...what are the WI-01 numbers?

We don't know. Nothing from Wallworth or Racine.

[Oryxslayer]

Northern Wisconsin going heavily for Dallet, while western WI looks like a dalmatian. What the heck is this?

Not a ton of precincts out of Western Wisconsin yet.

neither in most north counties either. Only real analysis appears to be doable on the SE and Oshkosh corridor area, where we have most/all precincts in.

[Oryxslayer]

Scre leading 51-49 in Brown (Green Bay) right now, but only 36/112 precincts and 300 vote margin. Probably mostly suburbs. Should flip since the county tends to be in line with its southern neighbors, albeit more to the left.

[Oryxslayer]

Screnock is doing well in Waukesha County, outperforming Trump there.

Basically the story of the night, and probably most of these special elections/upcoming midterms(?):

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/981349620591849474

Also AP finally calls for Dallet.

[Oryxslayer]

I came in hoping the win would be large enough to flip Walworth, but it appears that Walworth is staying Republican.

Walworth is the unofficial third W in 'WOW,' I'm not sure why you thought it could flip.

[Oryxslayer]

Something is happening up in the Twin Cities Exurbs

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/981356784832172035

This is really interesting. Dallet appears to be going the traditional dem path in Wisconsin and St. Croix isn't even on that this far up. Obama 2008 lost the county 51-47 while winning 56-42 statewide for example - the same margin as Dallet now. St. Croix isn't against voting for Left-leaning candidates before now, the 2015 supreme court race saw the dem win by 58-42 and win everything but the greater WOW. However, she won St. Croix less then the reset of the region.

This also appears to match the SD-10 results, where St. Croix moved far to the left. Perhaps more left-leaning Millennial families are seeking homes in the cheep exurbs, shifting the county left? I dunno. Maybe trump is just a extremly poor fit for this exurb in perticular.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/xenocryptsite/status/981358593084674048

Probably minority voters not turning out in these extreme offyear election. The primary saw Milwaulkees vote totals match Waukeshas for example, and Milwaulkee has way more people in it then Waukesha.

[Oryxslayer]

Something to remember is that Screnock is originally from the Western Rurals, particularly the area north of Madison and East of la Crosse in the Fox valley. His overpreformance there is probably explained by that. Anyone know where Dallet is from, so we can check her home region effect?

[Oryxslayer]

Why did Dallet underperform in Western Wisconsin compared to Obama 2012?

She didn't. She overperformed in some places and underperformed in others in rather unexpected ways (St. Croix vs. Adams vs. LaCrosse).

She got 69% in LaCrosse, Limo

This was a bad post in hindsight. I meant "Why is Dallet underperforming Obama '12 numbers in the more rural Western Wisconsin counties like Grant, Buffalo, or Juneau?"

Screnock's from the Rural west Fox valley area, he's getting a home region boost methinks.

[Oryxslayer]

Why did Dallet underperform in Western Wisconsin compared to Obama 2012?

She didn't. She overperformed in some places and underperformed in others in rather unexpected ways (St. Croix vs. Adams vs. LaCrosse).

Also only 10% of Adams is in, so let's wait and see what happens.

Fair enough.

Also, Kewaunee is sticking out like sore thumb (lol). We're getting some seriously weird breaks in expected county co-swings.

I would say Manitowoc is the weirder result. That county has more in common with Republican Calamut and Sheboygan rather that the Oshkosh - Green Bay corridor.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, Milwaukee county supervisor district 1 is at 103% reporting.

gotta get in that graveyard vote.