Where would we be today if Trump never ran for prez?

[dw93]

If Rubio or Kasich, or even Scott Walker managed to get nominated in 2016 we'd likely be in a 2nd term of theirs (and likely a hellish 2nd term, especially if it's Walker). If Cruz or Jeb got nominated, Clinton likely would've beaten them only to lose in 2020 so we'd be in the first (possibly single) term of a Republican President.

[dw93]

Cruz or Rubio emerge as the nominee. If it's Cruz Hillary beats him by winning the states she won against Trump plus WI, MI, and PA. OH, IA, NE2nd, and ME 2nd are all won by  Cruz by less than 5 points. Cruz does however do better than Trump in TX and does slightly better than him in GA and AZ. After the election, Garland would be confirmed by the Senate in a lame duck session, especially if the Democrats manage to narrowly flip the Senate. RBG and Breyer also retire before the 2018 midterms, meaning Roe is still the law of the land today. The notion of "Only a true Conservative can win the Presidency. See Reagan and Dubya" falls flat on its face after Cruz loses  the election. What little Clinton gets done at home is through executive order thanks to gridlock in congress. No meeting with Kim Jung Un obviously, she's tougher on Russia, and more hawkish all around. 2018 is a bloodbath for Democrats, especially in the Senate, and the last two years of Clinton's term see multiple impeachment attempts. If COVID hits, she handles it well, and while it narrows the polls a bit, it isn't enough to keep get her a 2nd term an she looses to a Kasich or Haleyesque Republican nominee. No Russia invasion of Ukraine happens as you wouldn't have Trump appeasing Putin for years before hand and there'd be no Afghanistan withdrawal with Clinton winning in 16 and a pre 2016 conventional Republican being elected to succeed her. Supply shocks and inflation from COVID disruptions cause economic headache for a Republican like they do for Biden or if COVID is avoided a recession and weak recovery do. 2022 is a blue wave with Democrats retaking the House and Senate and the Republican incumbent becomes a lame duck who's the underdog against the Democrats to win re election.

If it's Rubio, I think he narrowly beats Clinton. He by the skin of his teeth wins the PV and wins the EV by a narrower margin than Trump, with the actual 2016 map minus MI and one of PA or WI. On a good night though, Rubio narrowly flips NV which somewhat makes up for a loss of 2 of the 3 Rust belt trio states. Domestically and in terms of court appointments, his first two years in office are similar to Trump's, though I doubt Kavanaugh would survive a vetting process and someone with less baggage replaces Kennedy. Foreign policy, being more or less a return to Bush era Neconservatism is where his term would differ from Trump's. 2018 is a blue ripple instead of a wave, meaning the GOP narrowly keeps the House and the Democrats gain less Governorships (Walker likely holds on in WI).  Rubio handles the pandemic competently enough to narrowly fend off Bernie, Warren, or Buttigieg (I don't think Biden runs if a more outwardly conventional President is the incumbent). If the Pandemic doesn't happen, Rubio wins decisively. For how his second term would go, think of the scenario I outlined where Clinton beats Cruz in 16 and loses to another Republican in 2020, only make 2022 a blue tsunami as a result of Roe being overturned under a Republican President, and one that would likely try (and possibly succeed) with federal bans/restrictions. Rubio is the lamest of ducks in 2023 and 24, possibly more so than Obama in 2015 and 16, and the Democrats win 2024 big, though I doubt they'd have a Supermajority in the Senate given the map.