1992: Perot doesn't drop out

[dw93]

This is one scenario where I see Bush getting re elected. Prior to Perot dropping out, there were polls that had Clinton in third place, which would suggest Perot was taking the change vote from Clinton. Once Perot dropped out, Clinton's numbers surged and he was leading Bush by double digits until Perot re entered. If Perot stays in, the change vote most likely stays split between Clinton and Perot and Bush eeks out an Electoral College win. Either that or it goes to the House and Clinton wins as the Democrats had the majority at the time.