Ugh. It's 2017 and we're about to get a U.S. senator who openly supports both abolishing same sex marriage and no-exceptions abortion laws.
If Moore manages to win the runoff, the GE with Jones should be very competitive, and Jones might even win.
Aside from people who vote for him in the runoff, there is no love for Moore in the state. And 50 or 52 percent of runoff voters is not a majority of likely GE voters.
The absolute highest ceiling for Jones vs Moore in GE this december is a 55-45 Moore victory. Frankly, I think that it will be near 58-42 Moore, but I would not be at all surprised if Moore broke 60% in the GE this december.
I honestly think it's impossible to predict the numbers for this. Turnout in the first round was dismal. I suppose Jones could pull an upset if Moore is seen as a shoo-in, therefore depressing the Republican base, and the D base is energized enough to turn out.
In fairness, the last time Moore was up for election, he only won by 52% in a strangely close race against Robert Vance.
And Vance doesn't appear to have had widespread name recognition statewide. While he did have a good home base in the Birmingham metro, he also did well in the Huntsville and Mobile metros too.
