DDHQ early forecast for 2018 House: D's gain 12 seats (user search)
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  DDHQ early forecast for 2018 House: D's gain 12 seats (search mode)
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Author Topic: DDHQ early forecast for 2018 House: D's gain 12 seats  (Read 7715 times)
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,236
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

« on: August 25, 2017, 09:38:55 AM »

While this is an early prediction, I still see a few questionable projections here. They give Ds a 61% chance of winning Valadao's CA-21 while giving Ds only a 40% chance of winning Rohrabacher's CA-48. IMO Rohrabacher is more vulnerable than Valadao. Valadao is surprisingly resilient for being in a district that leans so Democratic at the presidential level. I'll admit though that his vote for the AHCA may sink him. On the other hand, Rohrabacher acts like he's in a safe R district, continuing to defend Putin and meeting with Julian Assange.
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PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,236
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2017, 09:05:34 PM »

No one thought Democrats would win all those upstate NY districts or Pennsylvania and Ohio districts in 2006 early on either.

Again, have you looked at the map? They'd have to do quite well to get 48, but you don't need any ridiculous seats.

Man...by March of next year you two will have shifted the conversation to whether or not the Dems will net gain 75 seats and then to 100 seats a few months later.

By October 2018 the only question left will be if the Democratic permamajority will reign for 1,000 years or 10,000 years. Oh and if Queen Harris (peace be upon her) will win by 30 points in 2020 or 70.


Sure anything can happen in politics but the Democrats right now are the Chicago Cubs of polticial Parties. They did win the World Series* last year so sure, anything is possible. Jerk off to your wildest fantasies.
I've gone over the house map hundreds of times since the election, and I think the best Democrats can hope for right now is a net gain of 32 or 33 seats, but the potential pickups will likely increase. Yes, gerrymandering and incumbency works against them, but the congressional districts were drawn before it was known that a Republican could win districts like PA-17 and Democrats could win districts like CA-48. While some of these results might be one-offs, I can see a number of districts that were already trending D before 2016 continue their trend, while more recent GOP-trending districts like IL-12 and NY-21 snap back to their pre-2016 behaviors.
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PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,236
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2017, 01:56:49 PM »

Here's the individual ratings DDHQ gives house races: https://decisiondeskhq.com/upcoming-races/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-race-ratings/

A lot of them in the Likely R category seems weird, like VA-06 and PA-05. I highly doubt those will be competitive next year.
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