Cook: Mixed messages on enthusiasm / midterm dynamics

[PragmaticPopulist]

Interesting. I mean, some of us have been saying for months about how the midterms won't be about how liberal or obstructionist a Democratic Senator has been, but oh well! I'd rather be the party that is crushing it among intensity and independents, but that's just me.

That's how I feel as well. I still don't think Democrats should just run on being anti-Trump. They should point out unpopular items in his agenda, and run on being a check against these items.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Interesting. I mean, some of us have been saying for months about how the midterms won't be about how liberal or obstructionist a Democratic Senator has been, but oh well! I'd rather be the party that is crushing it among intensity and independents, but that's just me.

That's how I feel as well. I still don't think Democrats should just run on being anti-Trump. They should point out unpopular items in his agenda, and run on being a check against these items.

     It really comes down to how Democrats run against Trump. If they try the same tack of "he says mean things!" that they did in 2016, they will find themselves being frustrated because that does not resonate with the people who voted for him across the Midwest. If they can emphasize the promises he failed to come through on and talk about how they will do better, then that could make the difference.

Agreed. That's not mutually exclusive with thinking that Democrats' chances at maintaining their current 48 seats despite the unfavorable map (or even getting to 49 or 50 seats) are extremely underrated. The heat is not going to be on Democratic senators next year, since they're not in power. That's never really been the case for a party out of power (except 1934), especially not when the party in power is as popular as AIDS. Right now, I'd give Democrats a 40% chance of keeping 48 seats going into 2019. Trading off MO and another seat for NV and AZ

Running on Republican incompetence and corruption would almost undoubtedly prove effective as well. What I meant was that Democrats running in 2018 should run against the unpopular policy items Trump and congressional Republicans are pushing, like the health care debacle (just like cap and trade in 2010), yuge tax breaks for the wealthy, cuts to the ARC etc.