The map looks a bit like how I envision the electoral map to look in 4-6 election cycles. Of course, it still remains to be seen if the midwest just trended R because of Trump, and a more conventional Republican would bring it back to it's normal leanings. The midwest trended D towards the end of the Bush years in most elections.
I think it's more that Upper Midwest (and to a lesser extent Pennsylvania and rural New England) swing voters are very dovish. Look at the trend in 1920, 1940, 1952, 1968 (minus the Humphrey home state effect in MN), and 1972. These states tend to swing abruptly against any incumbent party that goes to war, if the war was at all controversial.
Democrats did so well in these states in 2004 and 2008 because of backlash against the Iraq War. Had Bush not started that war, the 1996-2000 trend would have continued and many of these states would have already been Republican-leaning in 2004. In local margin vs. national margin terms, the Democratic peak in several Upper Midwest states was all the way back in 1988.
With the possible exception of PA due to its Acela corridor influence, the only way I see Dems winning any of these states back is if Trump starts an unpopular war. Trump is more likely to pick up MN and ME-AL next time than Democrats are to flip MI or WI back.
Trump's approvals are in the dumps in MI and WI. I don't get this meme. Longterm trend to the Republicans sure, but I expect Michigan to be Trump's Indiana. The state he was never supposed to win and swings back the other way in 2020.
Polls in Michigan have been notoriously bad (see the pools that showed Clinton was gonna win it in the primary), but I agree that Michigan is probably Trump's Indiana. And the midwest in general tends to swing against the incumbent party regardless if there's an unpopular war or not.
