WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[PragmaticPopulist]

If I were Manchin, I'd be hoping Morrisey is my opponent. Like was said before, Morrisey is a more traditional free market Republican, and West Virginia is not a pro-free market state. Jenkins would seem to be a better fit for the state. He comes off more as a Trump Republican, since he opposes privatization of social security, opposes free trade, and favors a minimum wage hike.

The good news for Morrisey is that Democrats still hold a registration advantage over Republicans in WV. Primary voters who would potentially vote for Jenkins wouldn't be able to unless they switch their party affiliation.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The Bernie Bros probably don't know what they're doing in this case. Manchin is a popular incumbent Democrat who doesn't act like a Republican-lite. Yes, he is probably the most socially conservative member of the Democratic Caucus, but he still is a reliable Dem vote on progressive economic policies. And it doesn't matter what Bernie Bros outside of West Virginia think; he's not their senator.

All that being said, In the unlikely event that Swearengin does pull off a win, she'd almost certainly be an underdog against Jenkins. Coal is too deeply ingrained into the culture of West Virginia for an anti-coal candidate to win against a pro-coal one.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The Bernie Bros probably don't know what they're doing in this case. Manchin is a popular incumbent Democrat who doesn't act like a Republican-lite. Yes, he is probably the most socially conservative member of the Democratic Caucus, but he still is a reliable Dem vote on progressive economic policies. And it doesn't matter what Bernie Bros outside of West Virginia think; he's not their senator.

All that being said, In the unlikely event that Swearengin does pull off a win, she'd almost certainly be an underdog against Jenkins. Coal is too deeply ingrained into the culture of West Virginia for an anti-coal candidate to win against a pro-coal one.

Fun fact: Joe Manchin lost the Democratic primary for the 1996 WV Governors race to a member of the green party, coming in 2nd place despite outspending 3 to 1

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=7224

That was before the decline of coal really hit WV hard. And besides, Manchin then went on to create a group called "Democrats for Underwood" that arguably caused Charlotte Pritt to lose.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The Bernie Bros probably don't know what they're doing in this case. Manchin is a popular incumbent Democrat who doesn't act like a Republican-lite. Yes, he is probably the most socially conservative member of the Democratic Caucus, but he still is a reliable Dem vote on progressive economic policies. And it doesn't matter what Bernie Bros outside of West Virginia think; he's not their senator.

All that being said, In the unlikely event that Swearengin does pull off a win, she'd almost certainly be an underdog against Jenkins. Coal is too deeply ingrained into the culture of West Virginia for an anti-coal candidate to win against a pro-coal one.

Fun fact: Joe Manchin lost the Democratic primary for the 1996 WV Governors race to a member of the green party, coming in 2nd place despite outspending 3 to 1

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=7224

>1996

What's really interesting is that Pritt did best in Southern West Virginia Coal Country. I wonder why?

Only explanation I can think of is the yellow-dog tradition. Southern WV was Al Gore's best part as well.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I agree that it looks odd at first glance when looking at Bannon's endorsement of Morrissey over Jenkins. While I still think it would make more sense if Bannon supported Jenkins, he might have chose Morrissey because Jenkins has become a "Washington creature".

All that said, I think Jenkins would be the stronger general election candidate. He's from the traditionally most Democratic region of the state, which would cut into Manchin's coalition significantly. Maybe Bannon isn't this mastermind we think he is.