Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[PragmaticPopulist]

If Moore gets the nomination, this isn't gonna be an obvious hold for the GOP. They will be favored, but you never know with special election turnout. Democratic enthusiasm + Moore's toxicity could be just enough for the GOP to blow an election they should've won

[PragmaticPopulist]

Senate Leadership Fund is out with an ad attacking Mo Brooks for being a traitor to Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxqIUOdc908

IDK if this really will damage him, but if it does, it could give Roy Moore an opening, where Brooks is too damaged and Strange is just too weak.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I thought Kay Ivey was smart, but she just gave Roy Moore an opening. If the senate race was held in 2018 I think the political climate would be different in Alabama.

You're probably right. If it were held in 2018, the Republican base might be less willing to choose an anti-establishment candidate. Right now, they just want to embarrass establishment Republicans by nominating the candidate the establishment hates the most, whether or not the candidate is electable.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Senate Leadership Fund is out with another ad attacking Brooks for being disloyal to Trump. Still no ads attacking Moore. I wonder if Strange's internal polls show Brooks being a bigger danger than Moore.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The Alabama Republican Assembly is backing Moore.

Also, I dug up Moore's election map from 2012. He lost by only 3.5%, even as Romney was walloping Obama by 22%. I'm starting to actually think Democrats should make a serious play if Moore is the nominee. Moore could be the GOP version of Martha Coakley.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Trump's probably doesn't care too much. If he endorsed Moore, it might make more GOP senators more willing to buck him. Endorsing Strange though seems like the safe option.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Moore has never won the Supreme Court Election by a particularly impressive margin, so I imagine Jones would have a shot if Moore is the nominee here. But let's be realistic, the establishment will get its way - Strange wins runoff 52-48 or so and wins the general in a cakewalk.

The establishment didn't get it's way in the presidential primary, so who's to say they willt get their preferred option here?

[PragmaticPopulist]

I hope the DSCC does totally write this race off. If turnout is low like it was during the first round, it could help Jones pull an upset. Scott Brown all over again.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Does anyone familiar with Moore know what people like about him so much? He doesn't strike me as a Trumpist. He's much more (no pun intended) ideological than Trump as well as clearly more religious. What confounds me is that Alabama went all in for Trump during the presidential primary, but appears to be poised to elect Roy Moore. Is it that Moore, like Trump, is more of a "personality" candidate?

[PragmaticPopulist]

If anyone hasn't done this yet, I calculated what a Jones win might look like based on the current partisan leanings of every county in Alabama compared to the state. I added each partisan leaning (for example, Jefferson is 16% more Democratic than the state as a whole) to the national democratic vote share average for the past two elections (51.54%). It produces this:



This would be a roughly 52-48 Jones win.

Now, it's not a perfect method for calculation; in this scenario, Jones would get 100.07% of the vote in Macon County. All that means is that Jones would have to pick up votes somewhere else. I expect Jones to get at least 80% in Macon County.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Looks like Moore will win Montgomery County; with 81 of 99 precincts reporting, he's ahead 52.3%-47.7%. Moore is also now leading in Mobile County, but there's only 16 of 191 precincts reporting.

[PragmaticPopulist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I mean, he ain't wrong.

Southern populism and conservatism were never, ever meant to be on the same side.  Glad you guys are finally realizing it.

I HATE that Steve Bannon is supporting from Roy Moore because it detracts from Moore's message and makes people equate him with Bannonist factions.

-Moore's base is deeply religious, pro-life, very conservative on issues of family, marriage, and sexuality, and generally votes on Christian conservative values

-Bannon's base is largely irreligious, many pro-abortion for eugenic reasons, indifferent to liberal on issues of marriage and sexuality, and generally vote on restricting trade and stopping immiration.

We Moore Republicans are not the Bannon Republicans, and I wish people would stop making that false comparison!

You do realize that Bannon's ideology fits North Alabama almost perfectly?

Santander's actually got an interesting point. Northern Alabama was one of the last parts of the rural south to shake off its Democratic tradition due to the TVA. Bannon would probably want to keep it public, like most other Republicans in the area seem to.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Basically, make gains around the Black Belt, the Mobile metro and the Huntsville metro.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Only on atlas does the AL senate thread devolve into a discussion about WV.

My general rule of thumb is that I don't bash any state/district/county etc, because either way, it's unproductive. Now before anyone calls me an "MD coastal elitist", Trump won my precinct by double-digits, so I'm not exactly a "coastal elitist".

The main attraction in bashing constituencies that are considered the "other" is that it riles up the core base. The GOP (and to a lesser extent, Democrats) have learned that stoking cultural divisions is good for short-term political gain, but no one thinks in the long term these days, so it's unwise as a Democrat to bash states like AL and WV, and vice versa.

Getting back to the original point, I'll agree that what Jones said was a bit of a gaffe, but in a low-turnout special election, who knows if it'll matter. Either way, it would've been better if he hadn't said that.

Of course, maybe this was actually calculated, and what Jones said is what a lot of Alabamans are thinking.