MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[PredictIt User]

The reweighted poll is still bad, the libertarian is way too high, he won't get past 5%. Also, it seems like Gianforte has struggled to get over 47% in the last few weeks so this leads me to believe this race is tighter than people think.

[PredictIt User]

"The last time I believe it took 20 minutes or so until the first big vote dump came in. After that, it really depends. It's nowhere near as quick as Florida, but if either candidate wins by 4 or more, we should know the outcome of the race relatively soon. If it's decided by 2 points or less than that, it'll be a long night for sure, lol."

MT Treasurer, do you know what counties are usually the quickest at counting and which counties are the slowest? For example, do the rural or urban counties come in first?

[PredictIt User]

So I ran some projections and I think Quist will start out with a early vote lead of 3-7%. I did this based off of the Governor's race in 2016, my projection showed Quist 53%, Gianforte 47%. With 10% crossover, it is Quist 54%, Gianforte 46%. Lemme know what you guys think of Quist's early vote lead (if he has one).

[PredictIt User]

NEW POLL ALERT
From Change Research/Medium.com

Gianforte- 49%
Quist- 43%
Wicks- 7%

Among those most likely to vote (NO LEAN):
Gianforte- 43%
Quist- 40%

Among those most likely to vote (LEAN):
Gianforte- 48%
Quist- 44%

Among those already decided (ALL VOTERS):
Gianforte- 42%
Quist- 38%

GOOD POLL FOR QUIST! Someone said it's an R internal too.

[PredictIt User]

PI User here,

Someone was messing with the market tonight so it is extremely volatile so I wouldn't trust the price. As for me, I have Quist YES and Gianforte NO. I think Quist has an EV lead of 5-7% but ultimately I still think Gianforte wins by like 2%.

[PredictIt User]

What time do results come in? 10-15 minutes after polls close? and what counties report first?