🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22) (user search)

Shifts regarding favorability/acceptability of PM candidates tend to be good proxies for where the momentum is going. According to today's 1Vandaag poll, Omtzigt has it. Yesilgöz, Timmermans and particularly Keijzer are losing it. Compared to last month, 58% find Pieter Omtzigt to be an acceptable candidate for PM (+5%). Yesilgöz (44%, -6%) is losing steam, but still considered acceptable by almost half of the voters. Timmermans (33%, -3%) and Keijzer (23%, -16%) are deemed less acceptable - BBB's campaign seems as if it's free-falling.

What has gone so wrong for BBB? I can understand their core issue disappearing from a previous high point will have hurt their polling a lot, but that shift suggests many potential voters are just being turned off by them.

NSC's candidacy and the idea that the farmers' issues were solved with BBB's participation in almost all provincial governments are the structural factors that would explain their decline. But that isn't the entire story. From a chronological and momentum point of view, everything went south after Van der Plas seemed to walked back the idea of Mona Keijzer having been presented as PM candidate. They had actually gained virtual seats after the presentation and Keijzer was viewed favorably in the polls. But then, in the Op1 talkshow, Van der Plas berated press for 'simplifying' the matter, seemingly rectracting Keijzer's PM candidacy. But it was BBB itself which had clearly used the term 'PM candidate' in Keijzer's presentation. Later, BBB clarified Van der Plas just didn't want to sound arrogant, not as if BBB had some kind of claim on the position of PM - so the idea would be that Keijzer is #2 and would, when asked, be willing to take up the job as PM. A needlessly nuanced, modest way of putting it. In the public view, the lingering idea was that Van der Plas already had some sort of quarrel with Keijzer ('corroborated' with dubious screenshots/stills of Van der Plas not smiling when looking at Keijzer during the show; in my opinion this proves nothing, as everyone can look bad when taking a random screenshot) - which was probably untrue, but perceptions are what they are.

Momentum is a curious thing that can suddenly turn around and they haven't been able to repair the damage, while NSC has presented itself and made no unforced errors in the process: candidate selection, manifesto presentation and Omtzigt's debates have thus far gone smoothly. The BBB policy of 'always say yes to the press' has perhaps also not been the best now that they are in a negative spiral. On the other hand, I understand they want to 'repair' the damage, and fading out of the picture one month before an election also isn't a good idea. So they are stuck between a rock and a hard place and it's difficult to see how they can still turn things around.

However, with their 16 Senate seats and a fragmented political field, they are still in a very strong position to enter the government and steer policy in their direction. With fewer seats, they may also avoid some of the turmoil inevitable to growing very quickly, something Omtzigt will almost certainly still experience. I think they're in a rather good position to find the way up again after the election, but for now things are painful for them.

Based on De Avondshow met Arjen Lubach, which I have been watching clips of on Youtube mainly to get a sense of how the campaign is being talked about from a Daily Show-esque perspective, van der Plas is also being critiqued for her lackluster performance in the first debate, sounding inexperienced and idealistic in interviews, and not having a plan for how to pay for her proposals.

From a populist perspective, I think there will still be a core who will vote for BBB because of her lack of political experience and her seemingly "woman of the people" rhetoric. But I think it's easy to see why voters have moved onto other options, especially with the formation of NSC.

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