What are the odds of Newsom being recalled and losing to another Democrat?
Been thinking about this a lot and I think it’s very slim.
If the election was in May, you would have Democrats jumping in because they just need to convince around 20-25% of Dem voters to vote for them (and recall Newsom). With polling showing that 30% of Democrats are unsatisfied with Newsom, that’s possible and ambitious Dems would explore it.
But the election is in late 2021. You can assume that we will be in a better spot with COVID than we are now. Dems won’t jump into a race where Newsom returns to normally high approvals with Dems. Convincing people to recall him at that time will be tough.
So, I think it’s very unlikely because I don’t think a larger-named Democrat will jump in. It’s too risky when the election is so far away from the anger.
