Why did George H.W. Bush lose in 1992?

[darklordoftech]

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

[darklordoftech]

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

[darklordoftech]

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

That was more of the GOP lurching hard to the right socially with Gingrich and his "revolution", leading to the demise of Republican dominance in the suburbs.

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

White Collar can also mean Bankers , Managers , Financial Analysts as well

And according to this many types of Doctors were Republicans in 2015:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/03/why-your-flight-attendant-is-probably-a-democrat/?utm_term=.bed155277dbd

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

Sounds like you're just talking about people you might know in New Jersey then ... Republican voting has been directly tied to a higher income in every election since then, including 2016.

Everyone in my town has a graduate school degree. They think a vote for the GOP is a vote for guns, homophobia, the government controlling women's bodies, and war. They also consider tobacco and alcohol to be worse than heroin. There's no bars or music, and police yell at any teenagers who they see outside at night.

[darklordoftech]

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

That was more of the GOP lurching hard to the right socially with Gingrich and his "revolution", leading to the demise of Republican dominance in the suburbs.

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

White Collar can also mean Bankers , Managers , Financial Analysts as well

And according to this many types of Doctors were Republicans in 2015:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/03/why-your-flight-attendant-is-probably-a-democrat/?utm_term=.bed155277dbd

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

Sounds like you're just talking about people you might know in New Jersey then ... Republican voting has been directly tied to a higher income in every election since then, including 2016.

Everyone in my town has a graduate school degree. They think a vote for the GOP is a vote for guns, homophobia, the government controlling women's bodies, and war. They also consider tobacco and alcohol to be worse than heroin. There's no bars or music, and police yell at any teenagers who they see outside at night.

Right, so a completely anecdotal piece from you about one town in one state in one region of the entire country?  I also find it highly unlikely that everyone in your entire town has a graduate degree, LMAO.

I've seen and heard similar sentiments in surrounding towns, and I never said that all white-collar people people vote Democrat.

[darklordoftech]

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

That was more of the GOP lurching hard to the right socially with Gingrich and his "revolution", leading to the demise of Republican dominance in the suburbs.

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

White Collar can also mean Bankers , Managers , Financial Analysts as well

And according to this many types of Doctors were Republicans in 2015:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/03/why-your-flight-attendant-is-probably-a-democrat/?utm_term=.bed155277dbd

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

Sounds like you're just talking about people you might know in New Jersey then ... Republican voting has been directly tied to a higher income in every election since then, including 2016.

Everyone in my town has a graduate school degree. They think a vote for the GOP is a vote for guns, homophobia, the government controlling women's bodies, and war. They also consider tobacco and alcohol to be worse than heroin. There's no bars or music, and police yell at any teenagers who they see outside at night.

Right, so a completely anecdotal piece from you about one town in one state in one region of the entire country?  I also find it highly unlikely that everyone in your entire town has a graduate degree, LMAO.

I've seen and heard similar sentiments in surrounding towns, and I never said that all white-collar people people vote Democrat.

And that's still only in a very, very Democratic state.  I shouldn't have to explain why it's problematic to extrapolate these *sentiments* you're hearing into making a claim like, "a majority of white collar people have voted Democratic since 1992," especially when the top few income brackets have gone Republican in nearly every election since then.

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

That was more of the GOP lurching hard to the right socially with Gingrich and his "revolution", leading to the demise of Republican dominance in the suburbs.

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

White Collar can also mean Bankers , Managers , Financial Analysts as well

And according to this many types of Doctors were Republicans in 2015:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/03/why-your-flight-attendant-is-probably-a-democrat/?utm_term=.bed155277dbd

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

Uh, what's your definition of "white collar" in this context?  I wouldn't say that "white collar" voters have been Democrats from 1992-2016...

Lawyers, doctors, scientists

Sounds like you're just talking about people you might know in New Jersey then ... Republican voting has been directly tied to a higher income in every election since then, including 2016.

Everyone in my town has a graduate school degree. They think a vote for the GOP is a vote for guns, homophobia, the government controlling women's bodies, and war. They also consider tobacco and alcohol to be worse than heroin. There's no bars or music, and police yell at any teenagers who they see outside at night.

Right, so a completely anecdotal piece from you about one town in one state in one region of the entire country?  I also find it highly unlikely that everyone in your entire town has a graduate degree, LMAO.

I've seen and heard similar sentiments in surrounding towns, and I never said that all white-collar people people vote Democrat.

LOL so basically in the same state or same region.


Wealthier people by the way are still more likely to vote GOP than Democrats.

I didn't mean a majority. I just meant enough to make a difference in an election.

Everyone in my town has a graduate school degree. They think a vote for the GOP is a vote for guns, homophobia, the government controlling women's bodies, and war. They also consider tobacco and alcohol to be worse than heroin. There's no bars or music, and police yell at any teenagers who they see outside at night.

Where's this lol

I live in Ridgewood, a very affluent town, and this doesn't match up that well. We've been a swing town (albeit Clinton and Murphy both hit 60% here for the first time since LBJ), so I assume you're from somewhere like...Montclair

You are correct that Montclair is one of the surrounding towns I was referring to. I'm often in Montclair and I know lot of people who live in Montclair.

[darklordoftech]

The recession. The loss of white-collar jobs caused by the recession resulted in white-collar voters becoming Democrats to this day, and the appointment of Clarence Thomas alienated socially liberal voters who had been Republicans for economic reasons, and him breaking his tax pledge depressed voter turnout. Clinton was also simply more charismatic than HW Bush. Clinton talked about how he could relate voters and had been through similar things.

+1 to that last poimt. HW was far too robotic and detached. Clinton really understood. The best example of from the townhall debate (I‘m sure most people remember this, but i’ll reiterate because it’ a great part of the campaign) - someone asked how the debt personally affected the candidates, so Perot started by saying that it caused him to leave business and enter politics, then Bush fumbled over the point that you don’t have to be hit by a recession to understand it, and talked about the impact on interest rates and the value of the dollar. But Bill knew that the voter was badically just talking about the economy, and talked about people he knew in Arkansas who had lost their jobs and their homes over the past few years, and managed to really relate to the voter.

Indeed. Also, in the first debate, HW just said that legalizing marijuana "is not the answer" while Bill talked about how going to jail helped his brother get clean.

[darklordoftech]

I think there's also something to be said about the 1980s. While plenty would classify it as a huge boom-time economically (as it was, at least on paper; that of course excludes the structural debt created to prop up said boom), it was arguably the first full decade where a significant segment of Americans began to see their standards of living decline markedly. You can in some ways compare Reagan's second term and GHWB's term to that of Obama's two terms: relatively large economic gains compared to the starting point, but a lot of blue-collar people left to wither on the vine.

I think some of the same underlying sentiments that defeated Hillary also defeated GHWB - though they were of course much less hostile in terms of how they expressed themselves in the case of the latter.

It's no coincidence that Pat Buchanan, a proto-Trump, ran in 1992.

[darklordoftech]

I know we like to think of 1992 as a masterful, against-the-odds victory for Clinton, but realistically the dam had been getting ready to break for a while.

I think what people say was surprising was that Clinton got nominated.