GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[_]

Handel needs to give Trump supporters a reason to not stay home, but at the same time she's giving Republicans who hate Trump more of a reason to stay home or vote for Ossoff.

Don't count on this happening--we thought the exact same would happen with the presidential election, and look where we're at instead. Republicans will show up regardless.

In the end what will matter is Independent and Minority turnout, it just depends on how energized Ossoff can get people.

[_]

This race is ridiculous, whoever wins is going to be there forever with the money they're getting from this.

[_]

Georgia 32nd senate district runoff is today. Judson Hill abandoned it to for his failed and pathetic attempt at winning Georgia 6th house of reps. This will be an easy GOP hold, but I will still watch it.

Do you have a results page for it?

[_]

Still pure tossup, if it were held today Ossoff would win, but it'll be tossup on the 20th.

[_]

52.5-47.5 Handel.

[_]

House Majority PAC (R) announced $500K TV ad buy and $200K for GOTV.

Oh god more money, and we have a month left until the election.

[_]

I'm going to take this with caution, but I do believe Ossoff would win 51-49 if the election were held today, by June 20th however, Handel should win 52-48.

[_]

I'm going to take this with caution, but I do believe Ossoff would win 51-49 if the election were held today, by June 20th however, Handel should win 52-48.

This is certainly possible, but what do you expect to happen that would cause it to flip like that?

The latest Russia Scandal to blow over and the Senate to start giving the AHCA a heart, along with Pence coming to campaign and more time to attack Ossoff the district should move back to its norms.

[_]

How much is Ossoff expected to win the early vote by? And what margin does Handel need with election day voters in order to win? I assume things here aren't as complicated in Montana.

Democrats combined won 78% of mail ballots and 63% of in-person votes, for an early vote total of 65%.

 

So in order to counterbalance GOP Eday votes they have to get to at least... 68% EV?

[_]

What do y'all make of this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Key thing to note is young, so might be a bit of Crossover there.

[_]

By the way, this thread is fast approaching 2,500 posts. Will it be locked at some point, or are we going to try to see this election through on one thread?

I'd lock this thread and open a new one, but what should the new one would be called?

GA-6 Special Election General Election discussion thread.

[_]

Ossoff has decided to skip a national CNN debate on June 13.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/democrat-jon-ossoff-to-skip-cnn-debate/article/2624921

What do we think is going on here?

Ossoff is ignoring the fake news /s

I assume he's trying to stay under the radar and avoid screwing up before the election.  Weird though because he should be trying to get his name out as much as possible.

[_]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

That growing DeKalb-Cobb disparity should be alarming Handel. Cobb is what should pull her over the finish line.

Does anyone know what the early vote %'s per county looked like in the early vote in the first round.

Ummm, look at Griffin's quoted post.

[_]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/

Atlanta Journal Constitution poll of 745 likely voters shows Ossoff up 51-44.

This one's over.

Ossoff +26 on women compared to Handel +9 on men

Kind of doubt he has that margin

Also harping back to the other poll that had him up 7, the SurveyUSA poll.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

It says Ossoff's winning men by 9 and women by 6.

Once again doubting.

[_]

This one's over.

Please don't say things like this. Have we not learned our lesson from 2016?

Please, two weeks before the election Hillary didn't have a seven point lead, and she definitely wasn't leading in Georgia.

We're just talking about one poll from a random pollster in a special election in a congressional district here.

That has an MOE of 4, and also has Ossoff with a 26 point lead on women, which is doubtful.

[_]

Ossoff is probably favored, but no one should be saying that he has it in the bag. House polls really aren't that reliable.

Most likely narrowly favored atm, but by no means is he 7 points ahead, its probably more like a 1-2 point lead atm with a number of undecideds, though they are likely a small number.

[_]

What would be the fallout of the Democrats losing this race? It seems like it would have short term implications for fundraising, but anything else?

Minor enthusiasm dropoff probably.  The "Oh we lost all these we'll never win anything" crowd would give up.

[_]

It was likely at some point Cobb would pick some up but being in thrid will hurt Handel

They've got 9 days to get to second and they only have 2 locations.  Voters who don't vote early will show up on EDay.  What matters is where all these votes in Fulton go.

[_]

Very narrow Tilt D atm

[_]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

In-person early voting ended today.  Here are the updated early vote totals (mail plus in-person):

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32410 (23.1%)
Fulton 80518 (57.4%)
Total 140309

It appears Fulton will decide the election then.

[_]

I'm going to take a stab at what Ossoff would need to win.  At minimum 56% of the EV, though 58% would be preferable.  Just a guess though.