Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

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I'd like to ask, apologies if it has been posted already, but what were the results of the 2018 IL Governor's race in this timeline?

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I'd like to ask, apologies if it has been posted already, but what were the results of the 2018 IL Governor's race in this timeline?

Yup

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*sigh*
Should have expected this

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I'd like to ask, apologies if it has been posted already, but what were the results of the 2018 IL Governor's race in this timeline?

Yup

You must be logged in to read this quote.

*sigh*
Should have expected this

The names are eh, I picked out of past Democratic candidates. It's more that Democrats picked up the governorship. (Although now, I think it will be Pritzkher or something).

Here's the article. The Senate GOP gained 4 seats actually. Illinois's budget deficits and ongoing fiscal crisis actually plays a big role in this timeline.

1.  Can you please post the margin?  There doesn't seem to be one
2.  I do not see Pritzker making it any better then Tilt D in otl if he's the nominee.

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Illinois was probably the only Midwestern state that didn't trend Republican because Trump kept demonizing Chicago.

This along with his failure in the suburbs and something of a Hometown Girl effect for Hillary (despite that she moved to NY). 

Also to TD's second point on Local Races, they can tend to break FOR the white house party because they are somewhat more detached from national politics, which is one of the many reasons Rauner has a great chance of winning if Pritzker is the nominee, which seems likely.

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Well I want to say a couple things.

1st: On Cordray I'm genuinely scared rn.
2nd:  Dem message on target, but they stole it from Papa Johns lol.
3rd:  To TD on Rauner, I believe you are wrong on him, and i'm going to list my reasons for rating a race against Pritzker Tilt R after I address your argument.

Argument:
1st, Rauner was elected to STOP the Status Quo, and the people here do not want to continue on the path that Blagojevich, Quinn, and Madigan set out.

Second, Fighting the state legislature = fighting Michael Madigan, the most unpopular (currently elected) politician serving in Illinois, and against the status quo, both should help. 

Now addressing approval, I believe most of that was from the budget Crisis, which has recently ended in a way which should help him, and according to Morning Consult he is at 40-49 approval, which right after a budget crisis which has lasted since the beginning of his term is rather decent imo. 

One last thing on the TL before I go to my reasoning, if this dude is in your timeline prominently, and the Dem Nominee for IL-Gov,  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oijs0vNTF3U , I don't think that it will happen irl unless he's completely and utterly imploding in the timeline.

Now my reasoning for rating it tilt R against Priztker:
1st:  Rauner's approval is only -9 according to MC, right after the ending of a budget crisis from the beginning of his term, with 70 Million in the bank and no primary in which he can boost his approval I think he can get into the positive before the election really begins Next July.

2nd:  Budget Crisis Resolution:  The Budget Crisis has ended, lifting a cloud that has hung over Rauner since the beginning of his term, along with a 32% Tax Increase that he has already begun hitting the Democrats and Madigan on, and with Pritzker showing support for it, that won't do him well (though I expect Rs who voted for it will be either primaried or face tough reelections as well).

3rd:  For those doubting Pritzker will be the nominee see the video from above.

4th:  Pritzker is attempting to run as a progressive in a Machine state, while he is completely covered in the corruption of Madigan and Blagojevich (wiretaps in which he asked Blago for state Treasurer and Madigan's clear backing of him in the primary.) I believe this will only hurt him as progressives will not back him out of distaste for his Machine ties, and moderates/suburban swing voters will be turned off by a progressive message.

5th:  Final reason, Rauner has had the past 4 years to lay the groundwork and build infrastructure for a campaign for reelection, which he has done very well (see 2016 state legislative results, where Democrats lost supermajority in House), and has turned the ILGOP into his own personal attack dog, along with Citizens For Rauner.

All these combined lead me to rate it Tilt R at this point, if Rauner fails to improve his approval by next July I will move it to tossup, but I don't see Pritzker making it better then that unless Rauner completely implodes.

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Not_Madigan, do you want me to respond to that or should I post the write up of the '18 race first? I have it saved in Google Documents. I just forgot to post it.

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Well. He might not be Governor. It wasn't Chris Kennedy specific though. The article is here. 

Not sure how you feel about it. Illinois and a number of other states implode fiscally leading to the crisis.

Sidebar: Your arguments were persuasive, I moved MD and ME to the Republican retained seats in this timeline in the gubernatorial races. I disagree on Illinois but I'll let you respond first before saying more on that.

I'd say go with the 2018 writeup first.

Also its unsurprising IL would explode and destroy the country.

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OK here you go. Note: I kind of winged it on the Democratic campaign. Feel free to critique it as you see fit. I changed it from Alex G to Kennedy but eh. the name doesn't matter.

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IL 2018 Election

Chris Kennedy (Democratic):  2,033,693 - 53.22% - WINNER
Bruce Rauner (Republican):  1,710,793 - 44.77%
Others: 76,808 - 2.01% 

Totals: 3,821,294 | Margin: 322,899 votes - 8.45%

Illinois continued its’ streak of unpopular governors in 2018. At least, Bruce Rauner did not leave in disgrace, about to be convicted. He was merely unpopular for trying to overthrow the Democratic establishment and status quo - and having failed. Like the President he was a businessman turned politician who ran against the status quo and won an upset victory in Illinois in 2014, winning by 5 points over highly unpopular Gov. Pat Quinn.

Donald Trump’s 2016 victory (and 23 point loss in Illinois) proved a heavy headwind against his re-election bid. So were the multiple fights with the legislature. Unlike Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.) and Charlie Baker (R-Mass.), Rauner had never cultivated himself as a moderate blue state Republican. Nominally pro-choice, Gov. Rauner vetoed a 2017 bill to protect abortion rights and his fights with the legislature on the budget made him highly unpopular. These were the kinds of fights that Baker and Hogan sidestepped.

In 2014, he had carried every county in Illinois except Cook County. He had won the liberal ring counties around Chicago decisively and won downstate Illinois by a wide margin. His margin overall was 140,000 votes (and that was with 33% of Chicago). He campaigned against Quinn's handling of Illinois’ finances. Republicans had come within a whisker of winning the governor’s mansion in 2010 but fell to the Democrats by a bare 15,000 votes. Compared to the 2002 win (the last time the Democrats flipped the governorship), downstate Illinois was more Republican but the collar counties less so.

In 2018, Rauner took 27% of Chicago, lost a couple of counties downstate and saw his 140,000 victory evaporate into a 8% win for Democrat Chris Kennedy. He lost Lake County, which he had carried in 2014 and saw his margins among the other collar counties reduced. He lost Will County and downstate, he lost St. Claire, Jackson, and Alexander Counties. Among the other smattering of counties to the west and central Illinois, he either saw his margins reduced or lost a few.  Apropos of nothing, he became the first Illinois governor to lose re-election since 2002 (George Ryan, also, was an unpopular Republican).

The Democrats had campaigned against Rauner’s budget cuts, arguing they were prohibitive. They also argued against Rauner’s abortion position and for things like universal college tuition and helping working class Illinoisans. More people voted against Rauner than for Kennedy, to be honest. To motivate the sizable minority population out of Chicago, Kennedy pledged to create an opt out voter registration process and to fight any restrictions on voting in Illinois.

Left unsaid in Illinois was that the Democrats were not exactly the prized party. Illinoisans were disgusted with both parties and increasingly despairing of their state. Illinois Democrats were not exactly popular - but the Illinois Republican Party was hobbled by the national GOP’s toxic attitude. Put another way, the swing voters who would go GOP were routinely voting Democratic for President and were not ready to be comfortable with a strong Illinois Republican Party downballot as long as the national Southern evangelical dominated GOP ruled the nation. They were quite aware of the failures of the Chicago ruled Democratic Party on multiple issues but were not ready to trust the Illinois GOP. Had Rauner marketed himself as a do-it leader who would challenge the worst excesses of Chicago’s Democratic Party while avoiding the divisive fights over social issues and right to work - all these things that Illinoisans liked, he might have made headway. (For instance, nobody liked their taxes going up under the 2017 budget).

Gov.-elect Kennedy would inherit a state budget in shambles, a pension system in need of constant shoring up, and state credit near historic lows. The fiscal crisis that would start in Illinois three years later had been decades in the making.

I assume you have Rauner signing the budget in 2017?
Also I can see this result for someone like Biss or Drury, but not Kennedy.  See I've been very careful on this race, I recognize Rauner's precarious position, and his only hope is going against someone like Pritzker or someone who can write attack ads for him like Kennedy. 

I have Pritzker as Tilt R atm, Kennedy as Tossup, and ANY other dem besides Lisa Madigan at Lean D, I think it's highly dependent on the dem nominee here.

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And thus the timelines diverged.

I think Pritzker can get it to D+3.5 to R+4.5, Kennedy D+4 to R+4, any other Dem makes it D+9 to R+2.

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TD I had one last request, you don't have to do a writeup but could you post the raw numbers from the 2030 IL-Gov race?  I want to know if waiting another 12 years and through 2 recessions in this state is worth it.

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Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

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Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

Republicans make pretty significant gains, but there's no way that it's enough to overcome the majorities that Democrats have built up through nearly a decade of Democratic waves that deeply entrenched a lot of incumbents. Once Barickman has to sign off on district maps, though, things might improve a bit for Republicans.

The maps are exactly why I'm so happy this happens in the TL, once those get put in IL would have a good chance of flipping, especially with 2032 being an R wave iirc.

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Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

Republicans make pretty significant gains, but there's no way that it's enough to overcome the majorities that Democrats have built up through nearly a decade of Democratic waves that deeply entrenched a lot of incumbents. Once Barickman has to sign off on district maps, though, things might improve a bit for Republicans.

The maps are exactly why I'm so happy this happens in the TL, once those get put in IL would have a good chance of flipping, especially with 2032 being an R wave iirc.

2032 was a 52-46 Democratic win. Republicans don't take back the Presidency until 2036.

There is no memory here then.

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Can we get a rundown of John Delaney in this timeline?

Edit:  As in his career in it, please.

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Who are all the possible people who can preside over a realignment? I remember you (or maybe TD) saying that you have three people in mind, including Sherrod Brown, who fit your necessary qualities (experience, ability to build coalitions, etc.). Because I don't think Cordray is going to be that President (as he's not even running for Governor anytime soon) so who else could take that mantle?

If they're not from the Midwest then look to Texas. The Castro brothers along with Beto O'Rourke should be to watch for - though they'd likely have to run in 2024 since 2020 would be too soon for any of them.

Also Russ Feingold running in 2020 is another option as is Minesotts Governor Mark Dayton.

Who would be an option for Cordray(or the person Presiding over the realignment)'s VP?  Heitkamp? Tim Ryan?

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CA would be Lean D in about 2040 in this alignment imo, but it will be trending R as Hispanics enter the Middle Class and Asians increase in population.

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The Walrus,

Great work! Are you going county by county based on median income/home price? I do wonder how purchasing power parity will factor into states shifting left or right in this alignment. Iowa for example has the third highest PPP and isn't exactly a bastion of working class whites ala West Virginia as some would think.

Here's the list of states by PPP:

Hmm, if IL is between WA and OR in Purchasing Power, I'd guess that IL would be about R+4.

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Ima make a guess for the Collars, All of them excluding Lake will be Likely R, Lake Lean R, and Cook County Likely D.

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CO should probably end up being Tossup to Tilt D imo, though it will probably be trending R.

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What would CO's PVI be?

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Once we hit the South we're gonna get some real meme county maps, they'll be good to see.

Also I really want to see Maryland (In addition to IL Obviously).  I think Montgomery, Prince Georges, Anne Arundel, Howard, and Baltimore Counties might go R or at least trend R.

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Wow PA must be like R+7 or something like that.  Also would CT and NH be R here?

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Yay IL is next, ima guess the Ds have a bit of ground in NW IL and Southern IL, but that's defeated by GOP Domination in the Collars and thinning of the Cook margin, R+3 overall.

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R+3?

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Eggman, what's Maryland's PVI here?

Also the South is coming up yay!!!

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3 states left

Don't you mean 4?  Hawaii, Mississippi, WV, and AL?