London 2008

[Harry Hayfield]

You can tell where Old Southwark and Bermondsey is can't you? Are we able to discuss the Assembly election as well as the Mayoral election?

[Harry Hayfield]

In that case (as the constituencies seem to be based on the councils in London) can we ask what the Assembly would have looked like if the election was held on Local Election 2006 day?

By the way, I've found that I have the London Assembly Elections on UK-Elect, would you like me to post a Con / Lab / Lib Dem swingometer (including seats won?)

[Harry Hayfield]

News Report (from Conservatives.com) about the primary:

This morning the Conservative Party has announced that Boris Johnson will be their candidate in the May 2008 election for London Mayor. The result follows the conclusion of the first London wide primary run by any political party.

Announcing the result of the primary, Conservative Party Chairman, Caroline Spelman said:

“I am delighted to announce Boris Johnson as the Conservative Mayoral candidate. Running a London wide open primary is a first in British politics. I would like to thank all our excellent candidates for the hard work they have put in. By opening up the process and running open hustings we have given all Londoners the chance to vote on the Conservative appointment and influence the outcome. The Conservative Party can now unite behind Boris to offer the people of London a real alternative to the misgovernment of London that we have seen for the past 8 years.”

David Cameron, Conservative Party Leader, said:

“Boris will be an excellent candidate and I know the Party will unite behind him to remove Ken Livingstone from office. It’s about time that all Londoners had the chance to vote for real change.”

Boris Johnson, Conservative candidate for London Mayor, said:

“I’d like to thank Londoners for giving me this opportunity.

“As I visited all of London’s 32 boroughs in the last few weeks, the message is loud and clear – King Newt’s days are numbered. Across London I’ve met people fed up with paying so much to city hall and getting so little in return.

“The job of the Mayor is simple - to get people to work on time, to ensure people feel safe on the streets, to help people find a place to call home, to celebrate our diversity and to champion our success.

“My determination to lead this city is stronger than ever. After seeing both the good and bad that London has to offer, I am committed to making London greater and standing up for every Londoner that invests so heavily in our city.

“I want to be a Mayor for all Londoners, from Zone 6 to Zone 1. A Mayor that will listen, will learn and will lead.”

Primary Election Data from BBC News

Boris Johnson: 15,661 votes
Victoria Borwick: 1,869
Andrew Boff: 1,674
Warwick Lightfoot: 609
Electorate: approx 3 million
Turnout: 0.66%

[Harry Hayfield]

The chance of a Con gain in the London Mayoral Elections is very high indeed.

GE 2005: 4.5% swing to Con in London
LE 2006: Con gain Ealing on a 10% swing

[Harry Hayfield]

And don't forget the list either:

Conservatives 533,696
Labour 468,247
Liberal Democrats 316,218
Greens 160,445
UK Independence Party 156,780
(No other parties polled more than 5%)

Seats in order of election
Liberal Democrats win the first seat: Lynne Featherstone ELECTED
Greens win the second seat: Jenny Jones ELECTED
Liberal Democrats win the third seat: Graham Tope ELECTED
UKIP win the fourth seat: Damian Hockney ELECTED
Liberal Democrats win the fifth seat: Sally Hamwee ELECTED
Greens win the sixth seat: Darren Johnson ELECTED
Liberal Democrats win the seventh seat: Michael Tuffrey ELECTED
UKIP win the eighth seat: Peter Cross ELECTED
Labour win the ninth seat: Felicia Gavron ELECTED
Labour win the tenth seat: Murad Qureshi ELECTED
Liberal Democrats win the eleventh seat: Dee Doocey ELECTED

[Harry Hayfield]

New London Mayor and Assembly Poll
Commissioned by: The London Evening Standard
Conducted by: You Gov
Date of sample: 20th - 25th March 2008
Size of Sample: 1,051

Mayoral Election
First Preferences
Boris Johnson (Con) 47%
Ken Livingston (Lab) 37%
Brian Paddick (Lib Dem) 10%
Sian Berry (Green) 2%
Richard Barnbrook (British National Party) 1%
Matt O'Connor (English Democrats) 1%
All other candidates less than 1%

Second Preferences
Brian Paddick (Lib Dem) 43% (50% Con 53% Lab)
Boris Johnson (Con) 18% (19% Lab 39% Lib Dem)
Ken Livingston (Lab) 14% (28% Con 37% Lib Dem)
Sian Berry (Green) 10% (6% Con 19% Lab 8% Lib Dem)
Alan Craig (Christian People's Alliance) 2%
Gerard Batten (UKIP) 2%
Chris Prior (Stop Congestion Charging) 2%
Richard Barnbrook (British National Party) 2%
Lindsey German (Respect) 1%
Matt O'Connor (English Democrats) 1%

Assembly Constituency Vote
Conservatives 42% (+10% on 2004)
Labour 37% (+12% on 2004)
Liberal Democrats 15% (-3% on 2004)
Greens 3% (-5% on 2004)
BNP 2% (+2% on 2004)
Independents 1% (+1% on 2004)
UKIP 1% (-9% on 2004)

[Harry Hayfield]

London Assembly Swingometer

10% from Con to Lab: Lab 11 Con 5 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
9% from Con to Lab: Lab 10 Con 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
8% from Con to Lab: Lab 10 Con 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
7% from Con to Lab: Lab 10 Con 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
6% from Con to Lab: Lab 9 Con 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
5% from Con to Lab: Lab 9 Con 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
4% from Con to Lab: Lab 9 Con 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
3% from Con to Lab: Lab 8 Con 8 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
2% from Con to Lab: Lab 8 Con 8 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
1% from Con to Lab: Con 9 Lab 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
No swing: Con 9 Lab 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
1% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 7 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
2% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
3% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
4% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
5% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
6% from Lab to Con: Con 12 Lab 5 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
7% from Lab to Con: Con 13 Lab 4 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
8% from Lab to Con: Con 13 Lab 4 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
9% from Lab to Con: Con 13 Lab 4 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
10% from Lab to Con: Con 13 Lab 4 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2

[Harry Hayfield]

New Mayoral Poll : April 2nd 2008

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/02/livingstone.johnson

Johnson 51% vs Livingstone 49% (after second preferences)

[Harry Hayfield]

I got Green for the Mayor followed by Respect and Labour for the Assembly, Lib Dem for the regional list!

[Harry Hayfield]

I took the poll. My comment is: who the hell is William McKenzie?

Former Con contender for the nomination who didn't like Cameron

[Harry Hayfield]

London Assembly Projections
(based on average April polls, national projected vote share and past London results)

Constituency Forecast Vote Share: Con 38% (+7%) Lab 20% (-4%)Lib Dems 18% (n/c) Greens 5% (-2%)UKIP 11% (+1%) Others 5% (-2%)

Regional List Forecast Vote Share: Con 35% (+7%) Lab 20% (-5%) Lib Dems 16% (n/c) Greens 6% (-2%) UKIP 9% (+1%) BNP 5% (n/c) Respect 3% (-2%) Christian Party 4% (+1%)

Constituency Forecast: Con 10 (+1) Lab 3 (-2) Lib Dems 1 (+1)

Regional List Forecast
Qualifying Parties: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, UKIP, Green
Seat 1: UKIP (Lawrence Webb)
Seat 2: Lib Dems (Michael Tuffrey)
Seat 3: Lib Dems (Dee Doocey)
Seat 4: Greens (Jenny Jones)
Seat 5: Labour (Nicky Gavron)
Seat 6: UKIP (Kathleen Garner)
Seat 7: Lib Dems (Caroline Pidgeon)
Seat 8: Labour (Murad Qureshi)
Seat 9: Lib Dems (Jeremy Ambache)
Seat 10: Labour (John Biggs)
Seat 11: UKIP (Michael McGough)

Total Composition and Change: Con 10 (+1) Lab 6 (-1) Lib Dems 5 (n/c) UKIP 3 (+1) Greens 1 (-1)

[Harry Hayfield]

BREAKING NEWS
English Democrat candidate for Mayor withdraws from race: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7366662.stm

[Harry Hayfield]

You Gov / Sky News Exit Poll 2004

London Mayor (First Preferences)
Livingstone 35% Norris 31% Hughes 18% Others 16%

London Mayor (Second Preferences)
Livingstone 53% Norris 47%

London Assembly
Lab 24% Con 32% Lib Dem 19% UKIP 10% Greens 8% Others 7%

Actual London Mayor (First Preferences)
Livingstone 37% Norris 29% Hughes 15% Others 19%

Actual London Mayor (Second Preferences)
Livingstone 55% Norris 45%

Actual London Assembly
Lab 25% Con 31% Lib Dem 18% Greens 8% UKIP 10% Others 8%