Potential Scottish Parliamentary Election (earlier than scheduled)

[Harry Hayfield]

Following the collapse of the Bute House Agreement last week, this week the Scottish Parliament is likely to vote on two no confidence motions

1) This Parliament does not have confidence in the First Minister (tabled by Douglas Ross MSP)
2) This Parliament does not have confidence in the Scottish Government (tabled by Anas Sarwar MSP)

If the first motion passes (that the Parliament does not have confidence) then nothing will happen as the vote is non binding, but will place the First Minister in a very diffcult position. If the second motion passes, then the King will announce a Scottish Parliamentary election to held in 35 days after the passing of the vote.

Also, if the First Minister resigns, the Parliament will have 28 days in which to nominate a new First Minister who has the confidence of the House, and following the dissoultion of the Bute House Agreement, the SNP are two seats short of an overall majority, meaning that without a coalition to supply those two extra votes, the confidence of the Parliament cannot be guaranteed.

Therefore it is no wonder that the betting odds on a snap Scottish Parliamentary election have increased from a 1% chance this time last week to a 35% chance today.

[Harry Hayfield]

Both the BBC and Sky News are reporting that the idea of the First Minister resigning are on "on the table" but that no decision has been taken yet

Update as of 0933 BST: The consideration, according to the BBC, is now a determination https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68918781

[Harry Hayfield]

On May 1st at 2.00pm BST (9.00am EDT / 6.00am PDT) the Scottish Parliament will debate a motion in the name of the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar MSP, stating that this Parliament does not have confidence in the Scottish Government (the motion tabled by Douglas Ross MSP having been pulled)

The Scottish Parliament website states that the Government (SNP) has 63 members, the opposition have 65 members and that one member (the Presiding Officer) does not vote.

Ash Regan MSP (Alba, Edinburgh Eastern) posted this on social media two days ago

https://twitter.com/AshReganALBA/status/1784649793802846239?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This is me indicates she intends to vote no confidence and thus trigger a Scottish Parliamentary election

[Harry Hayfield]

The government survives, until the next vote where confidence is required (such as the vote for the next First Minister)

[Harry Hayfield]

The government survives, until the next vote where confidence is required (such as the vote for the next First Minister)

The Scottish Parliament website states that it only takes a simple majority to elect a First Minister, that means that abstained votes are not counted in the tally, therefore the Greens have to actively vote NO for the First Minister clock to start again.

[Harry Hayfield]

Anyway, an "earlier than scheduled" election not looking so likely now.

Indeed, so long as the Greens keep on abstaining in any vote of no confidence in the Government, any vote will fail