London Borough Elections 2006

[Harry Hayfield]

As Lt. Governor Ben has entered the same contest as me on Political Betting.com, I presume he won't mind me posting my ideas (and reasons)

Barking and Dagenham (Lab)
Barnet (Con)
Bexley (Con)
Brent (NOC) (Liberal Democrats take advantage of Brent East)
Bromley (Con)
Camden (NOC) (Liberal Democrats gain seats from Labour)
Croydon (Con)
Ealing (NOC) (Conservatives attack Labour)
Enfield (Con)
Greenwich (Lab)
Hammersmith & Fulham (Con)
Hackney (Lab)
Harrow (Con)
Havering (NOC) (Residents grouping prevent Con from gaining)
Hounslow (NOC)
Hillingdon (Con)
Haringey (Lab)
Islington (Lib Dem)
Kensington (Con)
Kingston (NOC)
Lewisham (Lab)
Lambeth (Lib Dem) (Lambeth's past catches up with Labour)
Merton (Con)
Newham (Lab) (No suprises. but watch for the CPA)
Redbridge (Con)
Richmond (Con)
Sutton (Lib Dem)
Southwark (Lib Dem)
Tower Hamlets (Respect) (George might just do it or be a few seats short)
Westminster (Con)
Wandsworth (Con)
Waltham Forest (NOC)

[Harry Hayfield]

This is why when I report polls, I use this method:

Polling Organisation: Unknown
Size of sample: 496
Date of sample: April 20th and 21st

Polling Figures (from three key wards not mentioned)
BNP 45.5%
Lab 36.3%
Con 12.7%
LDm 4.5%
BNP lead of 9.2%

Now, from what I can guess about Barking and Dagenham, I would assume that those three "key wards" are wards where in 2002 the BNP polled second, but there were no BNP candidates in any of the wards in 2002, so let's look at by-elections since 2002.

Valence Ward (July 15th 2004) BNP second place
Goresbrook Ward (September 16th 2004) BNP elected and (June 23rd 2005) BNP second place
Village Ward (October 7th 2004) BNP second place
Becontree Ward (July 14th 2005) BNP second place

Therefore I think we can assume that the three wards were Goresbrook, Valance and Village wards. And looking at the turnout in the by-elections we can calculate an electorate of (7143 + 6940 + 6579 = 20,662) so this sample is 2.4% of the total electorate.

[Harry Hayfield]

At the end of the local elections in 2002 for London, the total number of councillors and councils won by each party was:

Labour 869 councillors (winning 15 councils)
Conservatives 660 councillors (winning 8 councils)
Liberal Democrats 310 councillors (winning 3 councils)
Ratepayers 25 councillors
Independent 4 councillors
Local Education Action by Parents (LEAP) 1 councillor
Christian Democrats 1 councillor
Green 1 councillor
No Overall Control 6 councils

[Harry Hayfield]

At the end of the local elections in 2002 for London, the total number of councillors and councils won by each party was:

Labour 869 councillors (winning 15 councils)
Conservatives 660 councillors (winning 8 councils)
Liberal Democrats 310 councillors (winning 3 councils)
Ratepayers 25 councillors
Independent 4 councillors
Local Education Action by Parents (LEAP) 1 councillor
Christian Democrats 1 councillor
Green 1 councillor
No Overall Control 6 councils

And the vote share was:

Conservatives 34%
Labour 34%
Liberal Democrats 21%
Green 6%
Independent 1%
Others 4%

[Harry Hayfield]

 
I think this is accurate; I have some doubts about Kingston (had to get the results off a local newspaper website) and one ward in Barking is disputed.

Some interesting patterns aren't there?

I am currently tallying up London (Bexley, Camden and Greenwich complete) and would like to know how do I calculate % votes in multimember wards?

[Harry Hayfield]

Can someone post the results for Brent in way that is simple. I'm trying to copy and paste the results into Word and am getting into a terrible mess!