Wales 2007 (National Assembly Elections)

[Harry Hayfield]

Election Result 2003 (40 constituency seats, 20 regional seats)

Constituencies
Labour 30
Plaid Cymru 5
Liberal Democrats 3
Conservatives 1
Forward Wales 1

Regionals
Conservatives 9
Plaid Cymru 7
Liberal Democrats 3
Labour 0

Totals
Labour 30
Plaid Cymru 12
Conservatives 11
Liberal Democrats 6
Forward Wales 1

Update: In May 2005, Peter Law AM (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) was elected as an Independent MP for the Westminster constituency. Standing against the offical Labour candidate in that election saw him sacked from the Labour Party (now 29) and robs Labour of their overall majority

[Harry Hayfield]

Actually Law left Labour just before he announced he was running as an Independent Labour candidate; the whole row over the shortlist and everything that's sprung from it has been just... strange...
I'd be suprised if he stood for the Assembly seat again; he's not a well man and he'll probably choose between Westminster and the Assembly (which is obviously a very tough decision ). If he retires I think an open shortlist will be chosen...

I happened to meet Mr. Law at the Royal Welsh Show (along with at least 17 other Assembly Members including all those elected to Westminster) and they all said the same thing "I am standing from the Assembly in 2007"

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Results 2003 (Winning Party and % Majority)
Aberavon Lab 42%
Alyn and Deeside Lab 23%
Blaenau Gwent Lab 59%
Brecon and Radnorshire LD 20%
Bridgend Lab 11%
Caernarfon PC 28%
Caerphilly Lab 37%
Cardiff Central LD 35%
Cardiff North Lab 2%
Cardiff South Lab 20%
Cardiff West 33%
Carmarthen East PC 17%
Carmarthen West Lab 2%
Ceredigion PC 18%
Clwyd South Lab 15%
Clwyd West Lab 2%
Conwy Lab 0%
Cynon Valley Lab 43%
Delyn Lab 10%
Gower Lab 24%
Islwyn Lab 36%
Llanelli Lab 0%
Meirionydd Nant Conwy PC 38%
Merthyr Tydfil Lab 44%
Monmouth Con 31%
Montgomeryshire LD 12%
Neath Lab 22%
Newport East Lab 20%
Newport West Lab 18%
Ogmore Lab 39%
Pontypridd Lab 28%
Preseli, Pembroke Lab 6%
Rhondda Lab 35%
Swansea East Lab 23%
Swansea West Lab 13%
Torfaen Lab 36%
Vale of Clwyd Lab 15%
Vale of Glamorgan Lab 10%
Wrexham Forward Wales 6%
Ynys Môn PC 9%

[Harry Hayfield]

Thankfully there are NO boundary changes for the 2007 elections (thank goodness) and my personal opinons are:

GAINS
Cardiff North Lab 2% (to Con)
Carmarthen West Lab 2% (to Con)
Ceredigion PC 18% (to LD)
Clwyd West Lab 2% (to Con)
Llanelli Lab 0% (to PC)
Preseli, Pembroke Lab 6% (to Con)
Swansea West Lab 13% (to LD)

[Harry Hayfield]

So as I understand it, all that will happen (in these changes is)

Conwy (Lab 31% PC 31% Con 25% LDm 14%) dives into Merioneth and becomes Aberconwy.

The northern tip of Caernarfon (PC 55% Lab 27% Con 11% LDm 7%) stays on it's own and is renamed Arfon, whilst the southern part is combined with the remainder of Merioneth to become Dwyfor.

Correct?

[Harry Hayfield]

Re the inital estimates for the new Gwynedd seats, I've written to someone I know in Aberystwyth who's going to do a bit of digging around to see if he can find some notional calculations

My inital guess is (based on nothing more than Assembly 2003)

Aberconwy Plaid Cymru (My guess that Aberconwy would vote Plaid comes from the marginal status of Lab / PC Conwy plunging down into rock solid Meirionnydd)

Arfon Plaid Cymru (This is a complete mystery to me, as I have no idea where Plaid Cymru's base is in Caenarfon. Is it in the north (Bangor) or the south (Lleyn Penisula)?)

Dwyfor Plaid Cymru (This is pretty much definite due to the AM being the Presiding Officer)

And on the regional list element

Con gain the fourth seat on the regional list from Plaid