Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Harry Hayfield]

is it even possible for the conservative party to win a majority.

My personal opinion (remembering a target table I constructed post 2004) the Conservatives need something like a 7% swing to get a majority of 1, and about 10% to get a working majority

[Harry Hayfield]

Recent Average of Canada's polls (since June 2005)

Liberals 36% (-1% on Election 2004)
Conservatives 27% (-3% on Election 2004)
New Democrats 17% (+1% on Election 2004)
Bloc Quebecois 13% (+3% on Election 2004)
Green Party 6% (+2% on Election 2004)
Others 1% (Unchanged on Election 2004)
Liberal lead of 9% (+2% on Election 2004)

Forecast Composition of Canada's Parliament (based on http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/:

Liberals 135 seats (Unchanged on Election 2004)
Conservatives 79 seats (-20 seats on Election 2004)
Bloc Quebecois 59 seats (+5 seats on Election 2004)
New Democrats 32 seats (+13 seats on Election 2004)
Independents 3 seats (+2 seats on Election 2004)
Liberals short of an overall majorty by 20

[Harry Hayfield]

Current Canada Polls (averaged since the start of the campaign)

Liberals 35%
Conservatives 29.5%
New Democrats 16%
Bloc Quebecois 14%
Green 5%
Others 0.5%

[Harry Hayfield]

My forecast is for a Con majority of 10, increased Bloc and NDP representation and the first Green MP in York Centre