The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Harry Hayfield]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.41%
Labour - 31.87%
Liberal Democrats - 8.10%
UKIP - 14.36%
Greens - 5.19%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.98% (SNP 4.11%, Plaid 0.87%)

Seats

Conservatives - 284
Labour - 282
Liberal Democrats - 23
UKIP - 0
Greens - 1
SNP- 37
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 0
Other- 20 (Northern Ireland 18, Speaker 1, National Health Action 1)

Likely Government - Con + Lib Dem with DUP/UUP supply and confidence

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 37% winning 21 seats
SNP 47% winning 37 seats
Liberal Democrats 5% winning 1 seat
Conservative 9% winning 0 seats
Greens 1% winning 0 seats
UKIP 1% winning 0 seats
Others 0% winning 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con
Stockton South - Lab
Redcar- Lab

Bury North- Lab
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Lab

Rotherham- Lab
Colne Valley- Con
Bradford West- Lab
Sheffield Hallam- Lib Dem

Boston and Skegness- Con
Broxtowe- Lab
Loughborough- Con

Worcester- Con
Dudley South - Con
Warwickshire North- Lab

Ynys Mon- Lab
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Con

Camborne and Redruth- Con
Bristol West- Lib Dem
Wells- Con

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Con
Rochester and Strood- Con

Kingston and Surbiton - Lib Dem
Battersea- Con
Enfield North- Lab

Norwich South- Lab
Clacton- Con
Thurrock- Lab

[Harry Hayfield]

Final Forecast
Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.98%
Labour - 32.65%
Liberal Democrats - 8.53%
UKIP - 13.53%
Greens - 4.94%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.91% (SNP 4.31%, Plaid 0.60%)

Seats

Conservatives - 276
Labour - 266
Liberal Democrats - 25
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 57
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 0
Other- 19

Likely Government - SNP hold the balance (Current Coalition 310 with DUP support, Alternative Coalition 298)

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 25.16% winning 1 seat
SNP - 50.16% winning 57 seats
Liberal Democrats - 6.29% winning 1 seat
Conservative - 14.93% winning 0 seats
Greens - 1.74% winning 0 seats
UKIP - 1.70% winning 0 seats
Others - 0.02% winning 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP
Glasgow North - SNP
Stirling - SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar - Labour

Bury North - Labour
Southport - Liberal Democrats
Heywood and Middleton - Labour

Rotherham - Labour
Colne Valley - Conservative
Bradford West - Labour
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats

Boston and Skegness - Conservative
Broxtowe - Labour
Loughborough - Conservative

Worcester - Conservative
Dudley South - Conservative
Warwickshire North - Labour

Ynys Mon - Labour
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative
Bristol West - Labour
Wells - Conservative

Brighton Pavillion - Green
Thanet South - UKIP
Rochester and Strood - Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats
Battersea - Conservative
Enfield North - Labour

Norwich South - Labour
Clacton - UKIP
Thurrock - UKIP

[Harry Hayfield]

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Emboldened equals correct