Welsh Assembly Elections 2011

[Harry Hayfield]

Seeing as someone has posted about Scotland, let's not forget the Welsh!

Constituency Results
Welsh Labour Party 314,925 votes (32.19%) winning 24 constituencies
Plaid Cymru 219,121 (22.40%) winning 7 constituencies
Welsh Conservatives 218,730 (22.36%) winning 5 constituencies
Welsh Liberal Democrats 144,450 (14.76%) winning 3 constituencies
Independent 57,591 (5.88%) winning 1 constituency
United Kingdom Independence Party 18,047 (1.84%)
Neath and Port Talbot Ratepayers Party 2,561 (0.26%)
English Democrats 1,867 (0.19%)
New Millennium Bean Party 840 (0.08%)

Regional Results
Welsh Labour Party 288,954 (29.63%) winning 2 regionals
Welsh Conservatives 209,153 (21.45%) winning 7 regionals
Plaid Cymru 204,757 (21.00%) winning 8 regionals
Welsh Liberal Democrats 114,500 (11.74%) winning 3 regionals
British National Party 42,197 (4.32%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 38,490 (3.94%)
Welsh Green Party 33,803 (3.46%)
Socialist Labour Party 12,209 (1.25%)
Independents 9,350 (0.95%)
Welsh Christian Party 8,963 ( 0.91%)
Communist Party of Great Britain 3,708 (0.38%)
Christian People's Alliance 2,694 (0.27%)
Socialist Alternative 1,865 (0.19%)
Respect 1,792 (0.18%)
English Democrats 1,655 (0.16%)
Veritas 502 (0.05%)
Socialist Enviromental Party 292 (0.02%)

Total Composition of Assembly
Welsh Labour 26 AM's
Plaid Cymru 15 AM's
Welsh Conservatives 12 AM's
Welsh Liberal Democrats 6 AM's
Independent 1 AM

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Results (ranked by % majority)
Lord Elis Thomas (Plaid, Dwyfor Meirionnydd) 40.09%
Janice Gregory (Lab, Ognore) 34.70%
Brian Gibbons (Lab, Aberavon) 32.01%
Jenny Randerson (Lib Dem, Cardiff Central) 29.31% standing down
Rhodri Glyn Thomas (Plaid, Carmarthen East) 28.94%
Christine Chapman (Lab, Cynon Valley) 28.81%
Nick Ramsay (Con, Monmouth) 28.65%
Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda) 28.11%
Alun Ffred Jones (Plaid, Arfon) 25.64%
Val Lloyd (Lab, Swansea East) 23.95%
Lynne Neagle (Lab, Torfaen) 23.24%
Trish Law (Ind, Blaenau Gwent) 22.78%
Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil) 21.82%
Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon) 18.62%
Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid, Ynys Môn) 16.38%
Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn and Deeside) 15.94%
Jonathan Morgan (Con, Cardiff North) 14.37%
Jane Davidson (Lab, Pontypridd) 14.22%
Helen Mary Jones (Plaid, Llanelli) 14.07%
Rhodri Morgan (Lab, Cardiff West) 13.75%
Elin Jones (Plaid, Ceredigion) 13.14%
Paul Davies (Con, Preseli Pembrokeshire) 11.16%
Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend) 10.41%
Lorriane Barrett (Lab, Cardiff South) 10.30%
Technical Definition of marginal (10% majority or less)
Irene James (Lab, Islwyn) 9.41%
Mick Bates (Lib Dem, Montgomeryshire) 8.87% standing down
Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly) 8.76%
Gareth Jones (Plaid, Aberconwy) 8.18%
Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath) 7.71%
Andrew Davies (Lab, Swansea West) 6.60%
Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) 6.39%
Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) 6.09%
Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) 5.92%
Karen Sinclair (Lab, Clwyd South) 5.74%
John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) 4.40%
Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) 4.33%
Sandy Mewies (Lab, Delyn) 2.36%
Ann Jones (Lab, Vale of Clwyd) 0.41%
Angela Burns (Con, Carmarthen West) 0.34%
Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) 0.25%

[Harry Hayfield]

Regional List Allocations
North Wales
Labour 51,831 votes / (5 + 1)
Plaid Cymru 50,558 votes / (3 + 1)
Conservatives 50,266 votes / (1 + 1)
Liberal Democrats 15,275 votes / (0 + 1)
British National Party 9,986 votes / (0 + 1)

Allocation:
Conservatives win the first seat (Brynle Williams elected)
Liberal Democrats win the second seat (Eleanor Burnham elected)
Plaid Cymru win the third seat (Janet Ryder elected)
Conservatives win the fourth seat (Mark Isherwood elected)
British National Party would have won any fifth seat with a lead of 1,347.5 over Labour

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Results (based on above poll)
Labour 42.93% (+10.74% on 2007) winning 30 seats (+6 seats)
Conservatives 20.03% (-2.33% ) winning 1 seat (-4 seats)
Plaid Cymru 19.25% (-3.15%) winning 6 seats (-1 seat)
Liberal Democrats 13.12% (-1.54%) winning 3 seats (unchanged(
Independents 3.31% (-2.57%) winning 0 seats (-1 seat)
Others 1.32% (-0.03%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)

Constituency GAINS
Blaenau Gwent (from Ind)
Cardiff North (from Con)
Carmarthen West (from Con)
Clwyd West (from Con)
Llanelli (from Plaid)
Preseli, Pembrokeshire (from Con)

Constituency Near Misses
Plaid HOLD Aberconwy (Plaid 34% Lab 30% Con 28%)
Lib Dems HOLD Montgomeryshire (Lib Dem 39% Con 30%)
Plaid HOLD Arfon (Plaid 46% Lab 36%)

Regional Lists
Wales South Central: Con 2 (n/c) Plaid 2 (n/c)
Mid and West Wales: Con 3 (+2) Plaid 1 (n/c)
Wales North: Con 3 (+1) Lib Dem 1 (n/c)
Wales South East: Con 1 (n/c) Lab 1 (+1) Lib Dem 1 (n/c) Plaid 1 (-1)
Wales South West: Con 1 (n/c) Lib Dem 1 (n/c) Plaid 2 (n/c)

Forecast Assembly Composition
Labour 31 (+5)
Plaid Cymru 12 (-3)
Conservatives 11 (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6 (n/c)

If that is the case, and the Liberal Democrats win six Assembly members for the fourth election in a row, then I for one will put forward the case that the Lib Dems contest the LIST seats only.

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency GAINS
Labour GAIN Clwyd West, Preseli, Carmarthen West and Blaenau Gwent

Near Misses (5% or less)
Cardiff North: Lab miss by 458 votes (1.32%)
Llanelli: Lab miss by 1,150 votes (3.78%)

Regional Lists
South Wales Central: 1 Con, 2 Plaid, 1 Lib Dem
Mid and West Wales: 3 Con, 1 Lab
North Wales: 3 Con, 1 Lib Dem
South Wales East: 1 Con, 2 Plaid, 1 Lib Dem
South Wales West: 2 Plaid, 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem

Composition of Assembly (and change on 2007)
Labour 28 constituencies (+4) and 1 regional (-1) = 29 AM's (+3)
Plaid Cymru 7 constituencies (-1) and 6 regionals (-1) = 13 AM's (-2)
Conservatives 2 constituencies (-3) and 9 regionals (+2) = 11 AM's (-1)
Liberal Democrats 3 constituencies (n/c) and 4 regionals (+1) = 7 AM's (+1)

[Harry Hayfield]

Gareth Jones (Plaid, Aberconwy) is to retire. He's 71 so it's not really a surprise, but it's a bit of a blow for Plaid all the same; only reason he won in 2007 was his personal vote.

Aberconwy 2007
Gareth Jones, Plaid     7983   38.56%
Dylan Jones-Evans, Con     6290   30.38%
Denise Idris Jones AM, Lab     4508   21.77%
Euron Hughes, Lib Dem     1918    9.26%

[Harry Hayfield]

Do you still have the list figures?

Yes, I do indeed have the regional list votes for 2007

[Harry Hayfield]

The latest YouGov (because no one else is even daring it seems) doth say...
Constituency: Llafur 44%, Plaid 21%, Tories 19%, LibDems 9%
List: Llafur 40%, Plaid 23%, Tories 18%, LibDems 9%
Not seen the referendum figures yet.

Constituency Forecast: Labour 30 (+6) Plaid Cymru 6 (-1) Liberal Democrats 3 (unchanged) Conservatives 1 (-4)
Regional List Forecast: Conservatives 10 (+3) Plaid Cymru 6 (-2) Liberal Democrats 4 (+1)
Assembly Composition: Labour 30 (+4) Plaid Cymru 12 (-3) Conservatives 11 (-1) Liberal Democrats 7 (+1) Labour short by 1 of an overall majority

Referendum: YES 52% NO 29% Unsure 20%

[Harry Hayfield]

The Greens do well in Ceredigion because of the university in Aberystwyth (all the Greens who have stood for the locals since 1999 have been either students or professors)

[Harry Hayfield]

YouGov/ITV Wales
24th-28th January 2011

Constituency
45 (+1)
21 (nc)
21 (-2)
7 (+1)

Regions
41 (-1)
21 (-1)
20 (+1)
8 (+3)

UKPR says this would give Labour the majority.

The latest calculations I have are:

Labour 33
Plaid 14
Conservatives 12
Liberal Democrats 1

[Harry Hayfield]

That LD MLA being presumably a list MLA - from what region?

Mid and West (in one of those strange electoral quirks!)

[Harry Hayfield]

Are you sure that they'd get so badly smashed on the regional top-up lists? They took three such seats in 2007 despite polling only 11.7% of the list vote.

Yes, according to the forecasts I have (which are based on the headline regional votes, I will update them when the regional votes are announced), the problem the Lib Dems have is their regional vote is very small compared to their constituency vote. In Ceredigion for instance, they only get about 67% of the constituency vote on the regional vote (Plaid get 114%)