Let the great boundary rejig commence

[Harry Hayfield]

Scottish notionals based on Andrew Wells figures.

Ah, we appear to have a slight difference of opinion here. Wells is now saying Galloway is a marginal Con seat and I have as a Lab majority of 8,000. That's more than just statistical difference to which I wonder has one of us made a mistake and if so how?

[Harry Hayfield]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat. 

From what I understand, she probably would have won Brighton Pavilion & Hove had it existed.  The notional figures will say otherwise (as Harry said, Anthony Wells has it with a Labour majority of 1860, with the Greens second) but boundaries affect voting behaviour (personal votes, and people voting for parties when they have a chance of winning but not otherwise) and I would think that in this case they would have enough of an effect to turn it Green.

(Aren't the proposed names "Brighton Pavilion and Hove" and "Brighton and Hove North" confusing?)

theyve done loads like that, there's Oxford and Abingdon &Oxford North, Barking & Dagenham and Dagenham North that I can remember, but they'll probably end up renaming a lot of them

It's even worse in Welsh wards. There are several wards in Wales that have the same names not only in the same council area but different council areas!

[Harry Hayfield]

Using the data so far published (England and Scotland) and averaging the polls for October, the forecast House of Commons is as follows:

Labour 40% (+11%) winning 299 seats (+88 seats)
Conservatives 35% (-3%) winning 236 seats (-57 seats)
Scottish National Party 4% (+3%) winning 17 seats (+11 seats)
Northern Ireland 16 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 3% (+2%) winning 2 seats (+2 seats)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-14%) winning 0 seats (-44 seats)
Others 8% (+1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)

Wales is likely to see (on that sort of swing) one Conservative (Monmouth), no Liberal Democrats, three Plaid (Dwyfor, Ceredigion, Carmarthen) and the rest will be Labour giving a total of

Labour 323 seats Conservatives 237 seats SNP 17 seats NI 16 seats Plaid Cymru 3 seats Greens 2 seats Labour majority of 46

[Harry Hayfield]

Still no news on the Welsh review? January is an absolute joke for that without the review though, I still can't see Labour gaining both Powys seats

First Week in January is what we have been told (thanks to the mess about local government boundaries) the Lib Dem notionals are Ceredigion (and something) and Brecon and Radnorshire's replacement and based on the polls I can see Brecon going Con and Ceredigion being a Plaid win.

[Harry Hayfield]

Top 5 Green % (based on October poll averages)
1) Brighton, Pavillion and Hove: Green GAIN 58% vote
2) Norwich South: Green GAIN 40% vote
3) Brighton and Hove North: Lab HOLD 26% Green vote
4) Cambridge: Lib Dem HOLD 24% Green vote
5) Deptford and Greenwich: Lab HOLD 16% Green vote

[Harry Hayfield]

Thank you.  I have a feeling that given the rate at which Green support is growing, we may be looking at the possibility of 3 Green MP's in the next election, though I know that may be a bit unrealistic.  Any constituencies where *vomits* the UKIP could possibly win? 

Not really. I doubt that they'll win anywhere unless:

1. An MP becomes seriously shamed, like in Tatton in 1997.
2. They hit around 10% nationally.

According to UK-Elect, UKIP do not start winning seats until 24% national vote share. The only time they get anywhere near that level is during the European Elections (in a PR election)

[Harry Hayfield]

You will be able to Liam, however I can't. Yesterday evening an e-mail came from Kirsty saying that only the national Welsh Liberal Democrats can make suggestions, but that is not the biggest gripe I have at the moment. That gripe is with the Boundary Commission themselves not have NOT (and this as of 0900 GMT on January 11th) put up the full report on their website. Compare this to England (where the website crashed due to people downloading it) and Scotland (which was able to be downloaded by 0030 BST).

[Harry Hayfield]

The official report has only just been launched on the Boundary Commission's site "because the person who maintains the site has only just come into work" (and that's from a Boundary Commission telephone operator). They have also published the schedule for public hearings

The locations, venues and dates of the 5 public hearings to be held across Wales are:

15-16 February 2012: Sinclair Suite, The Liberty Stadium, Swansea
22-23 February 2012: Millennium Lounge, The Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
29 February - 1 March 2012: Catrin Finch Centre, Glyndwr University, Wrexham
7-8 March 2012: Menai Room, Celtic Royal Hotel, Caernarfon
20-21 March 2012: Main Hall, The Pavilion, Llandrindod Wells

[Harry Hayfield]

Is "South Powys" better named/essentially the same as "Brecon and Radnor(shire)"?
Edit: Ah, it's "Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery(shire)". Hmm. Bit wordy.

In that case, what about Carmarthenshire West and Pembrokeshire South (1997 - 2015) or Middlesborough South and Cleveland East (1997 - 2015), they are both equally wordy.

[Harry Hayfield]

Just a reminder to Minion that the Commissioners don't want "I don't like that ward in that constituency" (in fact when I spoke to them about how the consultation will happen they suggested that those submission will be ignored), they would much rather have "I don't like that ward in that constituency, so here's an alternative suggestion"

[Harry Hayfield]

On Thursday, I'll be going to the Liberty Stadium in Swansea (as a representative of my aunt and grandparents in law) to query about the carving up of Montgomeryshire into Gwynedd, Glyndwr and Powys South. Is anyone else coming along (as it would be nice to put faces to forum names)?

[Harry Hayfield]

On Thursday, I'll be going to the Liberty Stadium in Swansea (as a representative of my aunt and grandparents in law) to query about the carving up of Montgomeryshire into Gwynedd, Glyndwr and Powys South. Is anyone else coming along (as it would be nice to put faces to forum names)?

I know it a shame to abolish such a historic constituency (though only at Westminster level), but I do feel that with regards to Gwynedd the W.B.C have made the right decision as Machynlleth does seem more like Meirionydd in both geography and community, as does everywhere west of Mallwyd in the humble opinion, once past the Brigands Inn you feel like you are in Snowdonia.

It's funny that you should mention Machynlleth being placed in Gwynedd because that was the mainstay of my evidence (as my aunt is worried that this might be the thin end of a wedge towards local government reorganisation, and as she has a sister that suffers from depression, the last thing they need is change). As for the actual meeting, the busy day was the day before (and I was the last speaker of the whole thing!), I got asked a couple of questions from Welsh Conservative and Labour about community affliations (saying that I was working on pure electoral maths like the Commission) but later found out that the Conservatives wanted to alter Ceredigion by taking out Maenclochog ward (which should be given to South and West Pembrokeshire) and replacing it with Llangelar ward from Caerfyrddin

[Harry Hayfield]

My initial reaction was that the Commission hasn't done too bad a job with Wales. Here are my doodlings: ukelect.wordpress.com/category/wales/

What I am more interested in is, "Where did you get the Google Earth ward maps from?"

[Harry Hayfield]

Boundary Commission for England to publish all 20,000 ish submissions received at noon tomorrow.

I wonder if my (slightly apologetic) submission will be published about North Warwickshire which was basically "I don't like the idea of Coleshill and Water Orton being put into Meriden, but as I can't do the maths shall have to grin and bear it!"

[Harry Hayfield]

Cheers squire

I have written (but failed to keep a copy of) a response to the BCW about the Labour proposal for "Llandudno Beach and the Shropshire marshes" or whatever it is. Complete  bobbins of the highest order.

Just as I think it's easy to guess what the BCE will do in specific regions, it seems to me that the BCW will tinker with the north (maybe just name changes as there's not much call for ward switching or the like from what I've read) and wholesale changes in the Valleys (where everyone considers it necessary to rip up and start again).

There's a great submission from someone getting into a right huff about the proposed Caerfyrddin seat, because he thinks a) nobody will be able to pronounce it, and b) the name would give the impression of it "being a nationalist stronghold".

I'm not Welsh and I can pronounce it wonderfully. Cair Fumph Rin. And as for being a nationalist stronghold, the notional calculations produced by the Guardian say: Plaid 29% Con 27% Lab 27% Lib Dem 13% UKIP 3% Others 0%

[Harry Hayfield]

As I am the person who started this thread, it only seems reasonable that I end it with my own thoughts and that is, the idea was I think quite sound. The UK has 650 seats for a population of about 60 million. If that is the standard number then India (with a population of 1.2 billion) would have a Parliament of some 13,000 MP's (it only has 500) and the US House and Senate (535 members) should have 2,665 members. And I myself would have been quite happy to see a Ceredigion seat delve into Northern Pembrokeshire (I was never that happy about the Carmarthenshire bits to be honest) but hey, ho, them's the breaks. Therefore, this seems as good a moment as any to lock the topic so that we can look back on it in five years time and say "I wonder if that Wakefield and the Calder Valey constituency is a goer now?"