Two questions for British posters (user search)
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  Two questions for British posters (search mode)
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Author Topic: Two questions for British posters  (Read 1105 times)
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,988
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
« on: April 14, 2010, 07:52:58 AM »

Enjoying your various detailed election threads, but you've got some crazy lingo there.

1. What are "notionals"?

A "notional" result is an estimation of the result in that constituency if tyhe boundaries for the election being contested where in place at the last election. In the UK, this is quite a new science having been done for the Feb 1974, 1983, 1997, 2005 and 2010 general elections/b]

2. What is the "swing", such that, as seems to be the case, the "swing" is from just one party to just one other party, even though there are three significant parties (or more in some areas)?

Swing is the average of change from one party to another. For instance: Con +5% Lab -3% Lib Dem -2% means a Lab to Con swing of 4%, Lab to Lib Dem of 0.5% and Lib Dem to Con of 3.5%. When people say "The Conservatives need a 6.9% swing to win a majority, it means that if 7 in every 100 Lab voters switch to Con, then 116 seats which are currently Lab would be turned into Con seats

Or is that too complex for you?
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Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,988
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2010, 04:58:42 PM »

There's usually at least one howler every post-boundary review election.
Gordon 1997 springs to mind Smiley

Dunbartonshire East (2005)
Birmingham, Erdington (1983)
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