WaPo/Ipsos: Trump at 4-5% against all Democrats among black adults

[Bidenworth2020]

Truly stunningly bad numbers for Trump. Blacks have always been more economically driven, and as such typically give incumbents better numbers than their first election even if they lose. Not only is Trump not matching the standard 7-8% republicans get among blacks, he has cratered to 4-5% against any candidate, including a gay guy (I know undecided are depending on the candidate, but still) and is not able to do any better, does not bode well for his re-election. I guess his only hope is that blacks are equally is not less energized to vote than they were in 2016. Also interesting to see that even among low propensity blacks, Biden has the clear edge in terms of them turning out and also voting democrat (though low propensity blacks, if they voted, would probably be like 97-3 democrat.)

[Bidenworth2020]

Yes, but the Dem numbers are also very low compared to Clinton for everyone but Biden (and his 82% is still low) so IDK what your point is?  The poll just has a ton of undecideds.

90% of respondents said it was extremely important to them that Trump lose re- election. Even if Trump won over every other black voter, he would still only match his 2016 numbers.

[Bidenworth2020]

Eh. 2016 had the black vote going 89% Clinton, 8% Trump, 3% Other. If 2020 is something like 92% Democrat, 7% Trump, 1% Other that's still a pro Dem swing.

You are misinformed by (typically inaccurate) exit polls. Actual #s were more likely to be around 3% African American support for Trump.

https://medium.com/@CatalistAnalytics/catalist-post-election-analysis-series-356c4ea20692

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwC_GapbE3vF6-n1THVbwcXoU_zFvO8jJQL99ouX3Rw/edit?ts=5beae6d4#gid=433702266

?? This poll had Clinton at +93 among blacks, better than Obama 08 and matching Obama 12. It also has democrats doing worse than her among blacks in 2018.