MS will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1987 is comical.
Vitter vs. JBE: LA will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 2008 is comical.
Moore vs. Jones: AL will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1998 is comical.
I never would have said that about LA, which despite being inelastic is still is much more flexible than AL/MS.
Um, Doug Jones didn't clear 50%, he only received 49.97% (and a rounded 50% is not enough to win with MS laws, see Musgrove and his 1999 post election battle), and this with a pedophile as his opponent and half of Republicans not voting. Thanks for proving my point.
1) What exactly makes the demographics of the Lousiana of 2019 more favorable for Democrats than MS/AL? Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the state less black than MS and less suburban than AL?
2) Okay, so a pro-choice Democrat won a Senate race in a Trump +28 (62%) Deep South state with 49.97% instead of 50%+1 of the vote? Welp, I guess that settles it, then. If only he had done .04% better, I’d be ready to call AL an elastic state. Actually, AL is even more inelastic than that, as Jones only won with 49.96559701049884% and not 49.97%!
3) I didn’t prove your point at all. If AL was as inelastic and partisan as people make it out to be, why did those Republicans who stayed home or voted for Jones, you know, care about candidate quality or the allegations in the first place? Why did they believe the women and not Moore?
1. True, but unlike MS or AL, LA still has areas that can be much more friendly down ballot. Just look at the registration numbers, and how well JBE did in 2015 compared to Clinton in Acadiana and the SW corner of the state. That and there is a decent suburban population around New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Shreveport to a lesser degree, etc. These are all areas Clinton did better and should at least trend D from 2016. Couple all of this with the fact that black turnout was horrible in 2015, and will likely be higher with the trend of high turnout elections in the Trump area, and you have better demographics than two almost purely rural states (I know Alabama has a fast growing suburban population, but it is still dominated by rural areas).
2.He won less votes than both Maddox and Clinton, and Moore won 91% of republicans. This was clearly a turnout affair, shown by how the swing to Jones was less pronounced in rural areas, which had lower turnout.
3. You can still be a complete partisan hack and see the writing on the wall when so many woman come out with their stories. Also, 44% of the electorate didn't believe the allegations, close to 95% of Moore's votes most likely, according to the cnn exit polls.
