Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats are trying to steal another Congressional Race. They always do.

yep. the nonpartisan election(with 4-5 pubs on it) board that voted unanimously to do an investigation is trying to steal this race for dems.

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats are trying to steal another Congressional Race. They always do.

yep. the nonpartisan election(with 4-5 pubs on it) board that voted unanimously to do an investigation is trying to steal this race for dems.

Un related, but what's that Ernst map in your sig?

her 2020 map.

[Bidenworth2020]

holy

[Bidenworth2020]

If the the dems steal this seat I swear to God I will never forgive them for this.

I'm sure you would've voted for Democrats in the future if they didn't "steal this seat", lol.

I would be willing to vote for people like Lipinski, Webb and maybe Ojeda.

https://twitter.com/KristinWSOC9/status/1071442184065437698 A Dem apparently.

I am not surprised.

but then Trump will talk about "the blacks" kneeling and you go running back.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is this seat the Charlotte suburbs?

Some Charlotte suburbs and some rural.

also the rurals  were actually the D part of the district in 2012 and the burbs were the R part.

Anyway this district and ky 06 and ohio 12th are all quite similar.

umm, the rural areas are still the democratic part of the seat? The only county won by Harris was Union (not counting Bladen for obvious reasons)

[Bidenworth2020]

Is this seat the Charlotte suburbs?

Some Charlotte suburbs and some rural.

also the rurals  were actually the D part of the district in 2012 and the burbs were the R part.

Anyway this district and ky 06 and ohio 12th are all quite similar.

umm, the rural areas are still the democratic part of the seat? The only county won by Harris was Union (not counting Bladen for obvious reasons)

Mecklenburg and the rurals are the Democratic parts of the seat, Union is the Republican stronghold (I think it correlates very much with the WOW counties in WI).

mecklenburg is more of a tossup area, but one dems need to win easily to win the seat.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is this seat the Charlotte suburbs?

Charlotte suburbs, Lumbee country, and rural areas in-between.

That is probably why McCready lost - he didn't know that Bladen County was in the district. How many times did he speak in Elizabethtown, and how many times did he fly out to Hollywood or San Francisco for a fund raising event?

McCain won this portion of Bladen 54-44. Even with the funky absentee votes, McCready lost it 56-41. That isn't a huge difference lol.

[Bidenworth2020]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

[Bidenworth2020]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

How did you calculate the swing?

Robeson has a considerably larger minority population. Black Democrats are much more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Lumberton is much larger than Elizabethtown or Bladenboro. McCready carried one precinct in Lumberton with 97% of the vote.

Since 2016, two county commissioners and a state representative in Bladen County have switched parties. Over the last 10 years, Democratic registration in Bladen County has declined 18%. It appears that the Democrat GOTV effort in Bladen County was targeted only at black voters. Unfortunately, this does not help candidates in NC-9 since the highest concentration of black voters are in southeastern part of the county.

from 2016 pres to 2018 congressional was a 19 point swing in Robeson. And I am talking about the NC-09 portion of Bladen here, not the whole county. No swing whatsoever from 2016 for someone who has no connections to the county makes no sense.

[Bidenworth2020]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

How did you calculate the swing?

Robeson has a considerably larger minority population. Black Democrats are much more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Lumberton is much larger than Elizabethtown or Bladenboro. McCready carried one precinct in Lumberton with 97% of the vote.

Since 2016, two county commissioners and a state representative in Bladen County have switched parties. Over the last 10 years, Democratic registration in Bladen County has declined 18%. It appears that the Democrat GOTV effort in Bladen County was targeted only at black voters. Unfortunately, this does not help candidates in NC-9 since the highest concentration of black voters are in southeastern part of the county.

from 2016 pres to 2018 congressional was a 19 point swing in Robeson. And I am talking about the NC-09 portion of Bladen here, not the whole county. No swing whatsoever from 2016 for someone who has no connections to the county makes no sense.

Oh. Isn't swing conventionally measured based on the same election, such as Congressional 2016 to Congressional 2018? Clinton was the worst Democrat in Robeson County. When he used her Arkansas accent it would have grated on any Carolinian's nerves. "It sounds like someone from Boone. No its worse than that, Tennessee maybe?. No even they aren't that bad. Sounds like finger nails on a chalkboard".

Turnout in 2018 relative to 2016 was highest in Mecklenburg and Bladen counties. In Mecklenburg it might have been a result of the 'Charlotte against Trump' rally for which the Russians have been indicted by Robert Mueller. In Bladen by local elections, and the GOTV effort.

ALright, checked the 2016 congress numbers, and Pittenger lost RObeson by 5, which is still a ten point swing. He only won Bladen by 58-41 though, almost identical to Harris, and he won by 17 points. Hmm...

[Bidenworth2020]

Harris's son just said he told his father about the absentee irregularities. He's done, lmao.

[Bidenworth2020]

Excellent !

The NYT speculates about a primary in May, a possible runoff in September and the new GE in November.

It‘s also not clear yet if Harris or Pittenger run again.

I think I read that Pittenger has zero interest in running again. I imagine he doesn't want to be in the minority.

It was pretty clear in September republicans would be in the minority when he ran and lost in the primary.

[Bidenworth2020]

who is allen thomas and why is he destroying?

[Bidenworth2020]

who is allen thomas and why is he destroying?

Allen Thomas was the mayor of Greenville for 6 years, and he's getting major leads in the counties nearby.

if by nearby you mean most of the district then sure

[Bidenworth2020]

this is pretty much the same as 2018 in rural, but I expect a turnout spike in Centre.

[Bidenworth2020]

Well it was still a fraction of a percent closer than the 2016 Prez GE so there is still that

Yeah all that canvassing really brought the margins down.

I do not think democrats tried at all in this race, lol.

[Bidenworth2020]

Umm that has trump at +16

[Bidenworth2020]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Probably a small sample size

Even with a small sample size of 125 its impossible to go from 90% to maybe 85% to around 44% D. The MOE for 100-125 should be around 9-12% ish.

Trump's appeal to black americans like his admirable negotiation of A$AP Rocky's release might be boosting Bishop's numbers with black voters in this district.

The best polls for Trump among blacks I have seen have him at around 25.

[Bidenworth2020]

MCCREADY WILL WIN!

[Bidenworth2020]

SCOTLAND COUNTY 2018 RESULT: D+13.7
SCOTLAND COUNTY 2019 RESULT: D+12.9

Will be better for Dems after absentees.

[Bidenworth2020]

There's still a lot left in Robeson too

I'd bet Bishop wins the eday vote there narrowly due to the trump rally though.

[Bidenworth2020]

There's still a lot left in Robeson too

I'd bet Bishop wins the eday vote there narrowly due to the trump rally though.

It clear some red precincts in this segregated county just dropped, since McReady lost 5% with 5 precincts.

It's just a hunch, not necessarily based on what is in.

[Bidenworth2020]

Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

Who do you think net gains from the non-meck, non-union vote?

[Bidenworth2020]

Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

Who do you think net gains from the non-meck, non-union vote?

Its mostly a wash, discounting Robinson. And Robinson is very segregrated so who knows whats out, but its probably more dem since some gop precincts dropped  last time.

Robeson not looking great for McCready.

Yep. Thats where Trump had his rally, so eday vote is probably in Bishop's favor.

[Bidenworth2020]

More Robison just came in, and it didn’t get any better for McCready. Went from McCready +10 to McCready +6...

I think he might actually lose it...