State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Bidenworth2020]

hey, it wasn't THAT bad. I'd rank this is a net positive in the 2019 gov race.

If you to extrapolate this out statewide, it would be a very narrow Republican win.

Sure, if we aren't going to factor the further R trend of Appalachia and the democratic trend of various areas throughout the state.

[Bidenworth2020]

4th blue to red flip this year. Panic time?

An 80% Trump seat not holding for Democrats is not panic time.

What about a 60% Clinton seat going red?

So many excuses.

TBF, a lot of dems went panic mode in that case.

[Bidenworth2020]

Oh my god. Every one of these elections is a swing right from the Clinton-Trump margin.

Thank you for the deeply thought-provoking input.

[Bidenworth2020]

4/60 in. So far, so good, but remember, PA always counts the liberal precincts first.

KOSIEROWSKI, BRIDGET
(DEM)
66.47%
    Votes: 333
SCAVO, FRANK J III
(REP)
33.53%
    Votes: 168

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1105630669307293696

[Bidenworth2020]

Miles, glad you "reappeared" here. Big thanks for your maps! It became my habit to look regularily at Decision Desk Twitter. One question: you have excellent knowledge of Southern politics. We discussed Mississippi in details recently. But what about Louisiana legislative elections? Term limits will cause very big turnover there, as lot of people, elected in 2007 (first time, when term limits were applied) are term-limited himself. Especially problematic, IMHO, is situation with few remaining white Democrats. If i am not mistaken - only 3 of them (Brown, Carter and White) may run for reelection, and chances of electing new ones in their seats, are,  usually, not good (many retiring white legislators come from 65-85% Trump districts). Your expertise would be very useful here...

It's been a while my friend! I've still been lurking around and uploading old races to the database here, but I'll likely post a bit more as Louisiana gets closer. Lots of interesting stuff happening in the legislature.

Miles has been contracted to make maps for Cook Political and Sabato before. Until anyone of us reaches that level, we do not have the right to decide what he makes and what he doesn't - unless he asks for input.

Thanks! It was great to work with them. Funny thing is they asked me for a lot of Presidential maps to help handicap downballot races. But now, I'm being told Presidential numbers are irrelevant

You really don't have any idea of the amount and quality of the work Miles has consistently created and published, do you?

I'm surprised Miles even acknowledged the existence of this insignificant right-wing troll.
He must have had a slow day at the office.

Yeah, sometimes you just have to go for it on these slow days! The vast majority of you guys are awesome and I'm happy to put out the content, but always inevitably a few who just want to complain.

There was an special legislative election in Alabama last year. My map compared it to the 2017 Senate result. Jones' performance was/is obviously about the ceiling for Democrats there, so of course they underperformed him. Had a guy saying I should have compared to 2016 President instead. Can't win sometimes!

In any case, looking forward to mapping more of these special elections this year!

DO you believe James Armes will win in the senate race?