ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[Bidenworth2020]

Michaud comeback??? Either way hard not to like golden the god.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/OurRevolution/status/990666792384286722

Our Revolution endorses Jonathan Fulford. This primary just got more interesting.

who wins, as of now?

[Bidenworth2020]

Golden is basically a carbon copy of Conor Lamb.

Much easier district to win too. Trump I think was the first Republican to win here since Herb.

Yup, but it gave LePage his best results in 2010 and 2014.

Isn't that basically assume to happen with every R in every race since the only other district is Solid Blue?

It was a little more nuanced not too long ago. Peter Ciancette actually won ME-01 in his 2002 gubernatorial run but got crushed in CD-02. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe won CD-01 in all their Senate races, but also CD-02 as well of course.

Cianchette, of course, was from South Portland and Baldacci was the hugely popular Congressman from the 2nd district.

could baldacci run?

[Bidenworth2020]

Golden is basically a carbon copy of Conor Lamb.

Much easier district to win too. Trump I think was the first Republican to win here since Herb.

Yup, but it gave LePage his best results in 2010 and 2014.

Isn't that basically assume to happen with every R in every race since the only other district is Solid Blue?

It was a little more nuanced not too long ago. Peter Ciancette actually won ME-01 in his 2002 gubernatorial run but got crushed in CD-02. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe won CD-01 in all their Senate races, but also CD-02 as well of course.

Cianchette, of course, was from South Portland and Baldacci was the hugely popular Congressman from the 2nd district.

could baldacci run?

Filing deadline’s past, and he lived in Portland now anyway.

too bad, looking at his 2002 margins, he'd make it safe d

[Bidenworth2020]

who wins, as of now?

It's hard to pinpoint but if I had to guess, I'd say Golden is still out front by a bit. His profile as a young marine vet who actually has legislative experience is the strongest background compared to his competitors. Financially, he's in the best shape. He has about 1,000 more followers on Facebook than St. Clair & Fulford and his posts get more likes (if that means anything). He's a good speaker and has endorsements from state reps/senators. And even though he's not the Our Revolution choice, his stances are still quite progressive (he supports universal healthcare and importing medicine from Canada/negotiating for lower prices, overturning Citizens United, raising the minimum wage, universal pre-K, etc). Thus with ranked choice voting in place, he might be a second choice for Fulford voters.

I don't think St. Clair & Fulford are too far behind though. Even though I don't care for him, St. Clair's done a good job having a lot of events across the district and his social media game is on point. The Our Revolution endorsement might provide a boost for Fulford but I don't think he's the best speaker (and I was a Bernie voter). Craig Olsen isn't a factor.

could st clair win the ge, considering he has an amazing ground op?

[Bidenworth2020]

could st clair win the ge, considering he has an amazing ground op?

He could be swept in with a wave but I think he'd have trouble holding the seat. Fair or not, Republicans will paint him as a rich mommy's boy from Portland & Seattle (he grew up in CD2 but moved from Seattle to Portland, and then back into the district to run). Since this is a rather poor district, it'd be stupid of Republicans not to go that route. I also find St. Clair's policy positions to be vague (he's heavy on the environment angle and light on everything else).

that is true,  but if he can survive a couple cycles, this districts has shown to love incumbents.

[Bidenworth2020]

St. Clair has a 52-48 lead over Golden: https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/06/politics/poll-moody-mills-are-front-runners-in-maines-unsettled-june-primaries/

Terrible news for St. Clair: he has all the money and name Rex and he’s only winning by four points. This makes Golden a strong favorite in the primary IMHO.

who is to say golden will get his name out there? also, no olson?

[Bidenworth2020]

St. Clair has a 52-48 lead over Golden: https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/06/politics/poll-moody-mills-are-front-runners-in-maines-unsettled-june-primaries/

Terrible news for St. Clair: he has all the money and name Rex and he’s only winning by four points. This makes Golden a strong favorite in the primary IMHO.

who is to say golden will get his name out there? also, no olson?

Poll was done in the same manner as RCV, so Olson was eliminated in the first round.

As for Golden: The party convention is coming up, where he could snap the endorsement of the Maine Democrats, and Maine is very prone to retail politics and is very engaged in politics. If he hits the bricks, gets out there and makes himself visible, the voters will find him.

well, ehat does a golden v. polloquin map llok like?

[Bidenworth2020]

I must admit, part of me thinks that Golden is getting some bad internal polling numbers and that’s caused him to go negative on St. Clair.

its clear st clair has the lead, as of now, he is just getting warmed up for the ge

[Bidenworth2020]

good for golden.

[Bidenworth2020]

Presuming Golden is the nominee, is it fair to rate this Tilt D?

yah, as long as we got him some cha ching

[Bidenworth2020]

man, demcorats have so many good candidates this cycle. golden, ojeda, rouda, levin, mccready!

[Bidenworth2020]

man, demcorats have so many good candidates this cycle. golden, ojeda, rouda, levin, mccready!

Aftab Pureval,Lisa Brown and Amy McGrath are also A tier recruits

oh yeah, them too (dont know lisa brown but ok)

[Bidenworth2020]

I was interested to see county by county numbers for Emily Cain in 2016 so I did some number crunching using town results to see where Golden needs to improve. These are rough numbers given the fact that ME02 has a lot of tiny towns and unincorporated territories and townships. I also compared Cain's numbers to Clinton's and both of Obama's elections.

Androscoggin County:

Cain- 48.1%
Clinton- 41.4%
Obama 12- 55%
Obama 08- 57%

Golden Benchmark: 54%

Golden grew up in this county (Leeds) and he represents Lewiston in the state house so his name rec. is high. He also destroyed St. Clair in the primary here. His blue collar/union focus should play well in this mill town/rural county.

Aroostook County:

Cain- 41.4%
Clinton- 38.1%
Obama 12- 52.7%
Obama 08- 53.8%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

Cain and Clinton really plummeted given Obama's numbers here. This wasn't one of Golden's strongest areas in the primary but I expect him to do better than Cain. Some of the larger towns like Fort Kent and Madawaska swing D. Hopefully Golden gets Troy Jackson to campaign with him- that'd be a dream team!

Franklin County:

Cain- 46.8%
Clinton- 42.6%
Obama 12- 57.7%
Obama 08- 58.9%

Golden Benchmark: 50%

Golden has a few things working in his favor here. He briefly went to UMaine Farmington (in this county) before enlisting in the military. He should play that up and juice college turnout. State Rep. Tom Saviello, a Republican, has endorsed Golden and he's well respected here and a part-time professor at UMaine Farmington. Even though this is a rural county, it isn't as conservative as other rural counties in the district. I think Golden can do better than 50% here but at least running even is what he needs.

Hancock County:

Cain- 51.3%
Clinton- 50.2%
Obama 12- 57%
Obama 08- 58.7%

Golden Benchmark: 55%

This county includes Mount Desert Island/Bar Harbor, and the more liberal islands mixed in with some rural mainland. Democrats should be energized here and this is one area Golden needs to really run ahead of Poliquin.

Oxford County:

Cain- 47.7%
Clinton- 39%
Obama 12- 55.9%
Obama 08- 56.7%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Golden spent a lot of time campaigning in towns like Rumford in the primary and I expect that strategy to continue in the general. It's rural but very working class and I expect his pro-union/blue collar/healthcare focus to play very well here.

Penobscot County:

Cain- 44%
Clinton- 40.8%
Obama 12- 50.3%
Obama 08- 51.7%

Golden Benchmark: 47.5%

The rural areas here are more conservative than rural areas in counties to the west (Oxford, Franklin counties). He needs to cut into those margins while juicing turnout in vote-rich Bangor and the college town of Orono (home of University of Maine).

Piscataquis County:

Cain- 37.6%
Clinton- 33.7%
Obama 12- 46.4%
Obama 08- 47%

Golden Benchmark: 40%

This is the most conservative county (it's the only Maine county to vote for McCain in 2008). However, it doesn't have many people. 40% would be a respectable showing and would likely make for less than a 2,000 vote deficit.

Somerset County:

Cain- 39.4%
Clinton- 34.9%
Obama 12- 49.4%
Obama 08- 51.8%

Golden Benchmark: 44%

This county is rural and blue collar like Oxford & Franklin counties but it's a bit more conservative. Golden should have more appeal here than a traditional Democrat given his military background and union focus.

Waldo County:

Cain- 49.4%
Clinton- 46%
Obama 12- 53.8%
Obama 08- 54.8%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Along with Hancock, this is one of the more liberal areas in the district. It's coastal and contains the city of Belfast. Rep Erin Herbig from Belfast is running for State Senate and she & Jared were apart of the House Majority leadership. Expect them to campaign together here.

Washington County:

Cain- 40.8%
Clinton- 37.1%
Obama 12- 49.5%
Obama 08- 49.5%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

The redheaded stepchild county of Maine and the district. It's one of the poorest areas of Maine and doesn't have as many people living there. A populist message should work well here.

Kennebec County:

This is the one split county in the district. The lines were drawn carefully to exclude Augusta and Waterville from the second district. I don't have previous presidential numbers from the Kennebec County towns in CD2, but Emily Cain received 43.6% of the vote here. Expect Golden to do a few points better. 46/47% would be a good benchmark.

Do you really think this district has moved that much right since the obama years

[Bidenworth2020]

Do you really think this district has moved that much right since the obama years

I think we can gain some of it back but I don't think we'll be getting Obama numbers there in the near future. Cain & Clinton weren't good fits for this district so seeing Golden's numbers will give us a better idea of where this area stands. Unfortunately, I think Maine Dems have gotten into the habit of relying on Portland/coastal areas too much and have let the rural inland areas get away from them. And their habit of being disconnected from district 2 really shows. Golden hasn't signed on to all of the national gun control measures floating around, but if he does, he completely blows his chance of winning this seat for Dems. District 2 is huge on hunting and guns yet Golden's gotten flack for being in line with his district on this. Too often we have Maine Dems, often from the first district, treating the second district like it's uber-liberal Portland. And it's not going to work. I'm hopeful we can turn it around though.  

I love golden, maybe my favorite dem this year, but if he loses, hopefully, Michaud or Baldacci snatch it back in 2020 and give coattails upballot.

[Bidenworth2020]

Now that's a much better ad. That last ad with the cookout was pretty lame, lol.

I thought it was funny that he missed the target after saying he was a straight shooter

yeah, that could actually backfire lol

[Bidenworth2020]

don't know man...