Does anyone know why Inner NOVA trended right in 2020? By this I mean Arlington + Alexandria + Falls Church area + McLean. Splitting the core NOVA counties (Loudoun, Fairfax, PW and all those that lie within) in two, you can yield a half where Trump got a higher percentage of the two party vote in 2020 than he did in 2016. That area is basically Inner Nova + east PWC.
It's not like the two halves are all that much different.
Half one: Clinton +51, Biden +50, 15% Black, 14% Asian, 19% Latino, 61% College Educated, $154k MHI
Half two: Clinton +23, Biden +32, 9% Black, 19% Asian, 16% Latino, 60% College Educated, $175k MHI.
Obviously the first half is more Black/Latino and less Asian, but not hugely. It has higher educational attainment and lower income, which would usually cause a greater D swing.
My thought is that Clinton really embodied a well off professional type and that played well in the rich areas of NOVA plus she did better with non-Whites. This is a place that would've swung basically everywhere else though.
In general deeply blue areas trended right likely due to the very high voter turnout we saw
I haven't seen a full deep dive of the hard data yet, but it appears likely that Republicans in safe Dem areas (like this one) were more likely than Republicans elsewhere to utilize voting accessibility measures in 2020, potentially adding to this.
