Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

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Whitmer now +8, 53-45. When all is said and done, she may actually get close to +10.

This forum owes Bernie Porn an apology.

Our resident "Pollster," who insisted to me that the race was within like 2 points, also has egg on his face now. Hate to say it because I like the guy but yikes, he was WAY off.

Yep, sure looks like we missed the statewide margin here. But what's strange is that we nailed the district-level results to a T. Basically the inverse of 2020. Will be an interesting autopsy over the coming days.

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The correct response to 2016's bait about the House being called in the 9pm hour in 2020 (this is the rare case in which the correct response is NOT no response) is that it was an objectively premature call that should not have been made when it was and the outlets that made it got lucky that they didn't have to retract it.

Regarding 2018, my memory is fuzzier though I have no recollection of any statistical evidence of the majority being in doubt by the 11pm hour.

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Not sure this thread is the relevant place to put this, but was on the phone with a Republican pollster friend this morning who said McConnell's circle thinks a Biden vs. Trump rematch "would follow the same trendline as the Kemp vs. Abrams rematch with Biden in Kemp's place."

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Anyone want to share an opinion on NH's political alignment?

It kind of seems like it has a stubborn Democratic preference at the federal level, but like it is a free for all for state level elections.

People in NH are terrified of being taxed like in Massachusetts, and think NH Dems would start a income/sales tax or something along those lines if they get full power at the state level.   That's really about it.

Very true and I mostly don't disagree, but the worry about Trump's pending run is much louder today (for obvious reasons) than it was on this day in 2018. Particularly the possibility of the January 6th committee continuing its work if Democrats manage to scrape together a majority is a major point of concern I'm hearing.

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Do we know why CT-05 was so close?

Hayes' campaign was widely considered by those familiar with it to be an objective disaster.

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Text from a Colorado-based former colleague (ignore the misspelled names):

"Frish is gonna be our Mariannete Miller Meeks"

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Hindsight is always 20/20, but it's starting to become apparent that of all the hard electoral metrics we got (specials, Nov '21, CA recall, CA and WA primary, early voting to some extent) the only ones that didn't foreshadow this climate was VA and NJ, and a South Texas special election that national Democrats didn't spend in.

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Anyone think that since 218-217 is really impossible to get anything passed in - that it’s better for Dems politically if the GOP wins the majority (at that number specifically I mean)

I've said this earlier in the thread: while I'd love to see the Democrats retain both houses, a D Senate and a bare R majority in the House is probably the best case for D prospects in 2024:

1. It allows D's to continue confirming Biden's appointments.

2. It removes any pressure on the D's to try and pass a very progressive agenda around Manchin & Sinema.

3. The R caucus will be an ungovernable clown show that regularly embarrasses itself, and can be blamed for failure to get anything done.

One advantage for the D's if they do hang on is they can keep the J6 committee going, but not having it is a minor loss.  At this point I think the committee has accomplished most of what it can do in terms of persuading the public; the DOJ will handle the criminal investigations.

Also gives Democrats the opportunity to run ads against every single GOP incumbent calling them the deciding vote for everything.

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Am I wrong the think there is a very real path for Democrats to take the Arizona State Senate? Numbers look like it but I'm unfamiliar with the map.

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Regarding Masters, I posted this in September:

From what I've heard about Masters, his campaign was hoping for the "nice young man" effect - a documented phenomenon in which older women gravitate towards young male candidates who remind them of their sons/grandsons/sons in law (Buttigieg, Pete) - but that focus groups have found this demographic actually finds him offputting.

Follows a growing trend we’re noticing of focus groups being far more indicative of Democratic strength/Republican weakness this cycle than our polling.

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I know we've mostly moved on from Florida, but I took a look this morning and it seems like DeSantis added about 500k votes to his 2018 total (not nothing!) whereas Crist fell an absolutely stunning 1 million+ votes short of Gillum's total.

Democratic turnout failure in the state really can't be overstated. The flip side of the coin also suggests that DeSantis is potentially not the driver of Democratic base anger that some think.

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I know we've mostly moved on from Florida, but I took a look this morning and it seems like DeSantis added about 500k votes to his 2018 total (not nothing!) whereas Crist fell an absolutely stunning 1 million+ votes short of Gillum's total.

Democratic turnout failure in the state really can't be overstated. The flip side of the coin also suggests that DeSantis is potentially not the driver of Democratic base anger that some think.

I’m not sweating it. You can’t extrapolate too much from Florida. It’s not very representative of the country. Democrats there are pretty conservative even. I can tell you don’t say gay would be taken a lot worst out west or in the Midwest than it would be in florida

I've conducted more research in Florida than any other state in my entire career and can tell you that this is decisively not true. With the exception of the Cuban population there is both fundamentally and functionally nothing different about Florida's electorate than other states with similar profiles.

The Florida Democratic Party's incompetence has become a meme but for good reason - and I worry that the "memeification" of it is actually causing people to not fully understand the problem. The party's strategic leaders are completely disconnected from reality with regards to fundraising and resource allocation, horrible at identifying and recruiting candidates, and have completely disregarded building any kind of turnout infrastructure. Politically, the party's legislative leaders and other key figures are feckless and inspire no confidence in voters, donors, or national party decision-makers. These two things are particularly detrimental because they only serve to feed each other and cause a doom loop rather than having one make up for the other. The Texas Democratic Party had similar problems for a while, but the difference is that in Florida there is no end in sight.

I don't mean to lash out and this isn't directed at you at all - I've just been watching this state party fail for so long despite so many people (myself included) shouting at them that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

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Laxalt with a surprisingly honest public assessment this morning.

https://twitter.com/AdamLaxalt/status/1591457044087066624?s=20&t=kF5CVGe7eN-...

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Very exciting night last night!

My main takeaway: I know the count is not fully done yet, but Clark and Washoe voting roughly in line with each other will potentially fundamentally change the path to victory calculus for both parties in Nevada.

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Kevin McCarthy needs to immediatedly be primaried in his Home State. Reason: He picked up the Phone and spoke with the President and that is prohibited from my Point of View if you are the Republican Leader no matter if you are in the Minority or Majority.

# Don't Speak with the President

Your writers have outdone themselves.

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Lowkey, I feel like this election shows how Dems are overcoming the geography advantage long held by Republicans. Most of Rs biggest gains were concentrated in areas that were either Safe D/Safe R. I mean just look at the NYT swing map, the country as a whole clearly swung Rs but dems gaiend where they needed too.

And while some suburbs swung back to the right, few swung *significantly* to the right and the ones that did had special circumstances.

The challenge for Dems ofc is still going to be the Senate, but Rs gaining in NY and FL makes me feel a bit more optimistic as it seems like Dems may have strength in places like AK, KS, and MT down the road and held their ground quite well in the northeast.

I've been pointing out for a few years now that the electoral strategy of the post-Trump Republican party is to maximize support in stagnant/shrinking areas while hemorrhaging it in growing areas, and that this strategy is more likely to cause a collapse of support all at once rather than slowly over time.

Only place where this isn't the case is Florida.