There are very few ballot measures/campaigns in general that I have been more proud to be a part of the polling team for.
I'm sure you're not allowed to tell us, but hearing about how the polling changed for this over the last couple of weeks would be fascinating.
This was always NO's race to lose even long before the Supreme Court got involved - it was just never a particularly popular measure, and many voters in all races/places tend to default to NO on ballot measures to begin with (NO usually overperforms its polling for this reason, and we saw that here). After Dobbs hit we had polling showing that there was strong messaging the YES campaign could have pivoted to, but they never did and instead stayed the course with their messaging that was already not working and became even less effective once the landscape on the issue changed. The most important decision the NO campaign made (backed up by the data, both ours and the other pollsters working on this) was to aggressively talk about abortion in the liberal media markets while never even saying the word in the conservative markets. There were strong signs in the polling and broad recognition on the ground early on that significant crossover appeal was possible if that balance was hit, and there were thankfully many people involved who were successfully held back from their worst impulses and from letting their passions and anger drive strategic decision-making that would have badly eroded support and not given them the resounding victory they wanted and got (though they still would have won - again, this was never a popular measure).
