GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Pollster]

McConnell probably wants him to run to prevent MTG from blowing the race for the party from the outset, dragging down the ticket in the process, and potentially becoming a national problem, even if Perdue himself ultimately doesn't win.

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How is this the first time I'm hearing that he has been diagnosed with DID?

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I begrudgingly respect Herschel Walker's willingness to publicly humiliate himself for the sake of lowering expectations as much as possible. I genuinely think many people would not be willing to do that.

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Warnock makes this look incredibly easy.

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Amazing what Herschel Walker has done to his life & family all because Trump told him to run for the Senate.

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As someone who lives in Georgia, I have to tell you that there are a significant number of people here who are not nearly as politically engaged as are users of this forum, but they still vote.

This is true of anywhere on the planet that holds elections.

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Can any poster in Georgia or who has kept a close eye on ads tell me how many of Walker's ads actually feature Walker himself (besides the direct to camera one he released yesterday)?

This feels a lot like a campaign in which the candidate themself is the campaign's worst asset, and in circumstances like that ads rarely feature the candidate.

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[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

Yes. Focus groups usually never have more than 12 participants (and even that is large for a focus group) so it's impossible to be representative of anything, let alone geography in even a small state. Focus groups aren't designed to be representative and are intended only to be directional or informative, not predictive, and should never be the sole research tool used by any persuasive campaign (political or not). You will be hard pressed to find a focus group memo ever given to a client that doesn't have the words "qualitative takeaways are not statistically representative and should be confirmed with quantitative research before making high-stakes decisions" or something along those lines. That's part of what makes this focus group podcast (and Longwell's editorialization) so funny. There are a LOT of useful functions that focus groups provide, but what she's trying to do generally isn't it.

[Pollster]

[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

Yes. Focus groups usually never have more than 12 participants (and even that is large for a focus group) so it's impossible to be representative of anything, let alone geography in even a small state. Focus groups aren't designed to be representative and are intended only to be directional or informative, not predictive, and should never be the sole research tool used by any persuasive campaign (political or not). You will be hard pressed to find a focus group memo ever given to a client that doesn't have the words "qualitative takeaways are not statistically representative and should be confirmed with quantitative research before making high-stakes decisions" or something along those lines. That's part of what makes this focus group podcast (and Longwell's editorialization) so funny. There are a LOT of useful functions that focus groups provide, but what she's trying to do generally isn't it.

You won’t see it the other way around, unfortunately. I think that if you truly want something “representative,” a mix of qual and quant (usually in that order too) is absolutely crucial. Focus groups can help better design polling instruments and provide natural language for answers that more accurately reflects public opinion.

Definitely true. I can think of tons of times that direct quotes from focus group participants made into into messages we've tested in polls and eventually into ads. Very powerful combination of research tools.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?

Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

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https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

Right on all of it, or just Georgia?

Presumably all of it, but I was referring to Georgia.

[Pollster]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

[Pollster]

"I don't even understand what he thinks he's saying" is a great example of a line in an ad almost certainly plucked directly from a focus group quote.

https://twitter.com/reverendwarnock/status/1596532507566133250?s=42&t=bAqEbM...

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Folks need to remember that the electoral strategy (using that term loosely) of the modern-day Republican Party is to get bigger and bigger margins in shrinking areas while getting blown out by bigger and bigger margins in growing areas. I don't think anybody here needs me to explain the implications of such a dynamic.

Walker's inconsistent over/underperformances throughout the state tonight are a perfect example of this.

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Walker improving on his margins from November in many rural counties yet being on track to lose by nearly 3x his November statewide margin really tells you everything you need to know about this state (and the nation as a whole sans Florida, honestly).