2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pollster]

I think we might be collectively overreading/overreacting to Schumer here. He probably sees the polling results that SMP and the DSCC get (and the DSCC being a party committee also gets to see the polling from all of the individual campaigns as well) and is making sense of a lot of individual pieces.

At this time of year, all of these campaigns, committees, and main party outside groups (SMP/SLF/CLF/HMP) are doing rolling tracks in their key races and see new data every few days. They're almost always a week or two ahead of public pollsters/prognosticators. What Schumer says in that video could be the public pollsters' consensus next week. It also might not be. Don't overread it.

Fwiw, there is a rumor going around (feels like I've been saying this a lot - people are talking more than usual this year) that the DSCC got a poll back a couple of weeks ago with Masters ahead. I haven't been able to confirm and my own work in AZ does not align with this yet, but if that's what Schumer has seen then that's what he's seen.

[Pollster]

"Republican pollsters are flooding the zone with pro-GOP polls to skew the averages" is technically true (and these polls may wind up being "accurate" even if they aren't conducted well, the two aren't necessarily correlated) but the bigger warning sign is that Democratic candidates/groups aren't responding to it with their own numbers. And I guarantee you, they haven't stopped polling.