SurveyUSA: Biden+10 (user search)
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  SurveyUSA: Biden+10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: SurveyUSA: Biden+10  (Read 2203 times)
Pollster
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« on: October 06, 2020, 11:29:21 AM »

It looks like we're seeing some GOP non-response bias - the sample is 44 D/36 R/18 I.

However, Trump is leading independents by two points (certainly not in line with virtually all other polling and general conventional wisdom) so extremely likely that we're seeing the central limits theorem correct the toplines here.
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Pollster
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,765


« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2020, 11:38:58 AM »

Some other notable findings here:

-Trump's hospitalization appears to have increased enthusiasm to vote for him (from 70% to 84% enthusiastic among his voters). Given the collapse in his support that the same poll shows from pre-hospitalization to hospitalization, I'd surmise that we're seeing his least enthusiastic supporters abandon him, leaving only the most enthusiastic remaining.

-Biden also appears to have gotten a bump in enthusiasm, though much smaller (75% to 80% enthusiastic).

-Only 5% of Trump voters say they would take to the streets if Trump loses, and only 2% say they would do so armed and/or prepared for violence. A plurality say they will accept the outcome and wish Trump well.

-More Biden voters than Trump voters say they will take to the streets if Biden loses (10%), and a similar 2% say they would do so armed and/or prepared for violence. A plurality of Biden voters say they would doubt the outcome but keep their disappointment to themselves.
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