NE-02 D Internal- Biden +11, Eastman +1

[Pollster]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

[Pollster]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?

No. I simply noted that the DCCC's hatred (maybe the wrong word, let's go instead with clear apathy) for Eastman is hilarious, and that they're using this poll to send the message that she's a weak general election candidate who, if she wins, will probably do so on Biden's coattails. If I had to guess, they're setting themselves up to triage her again even though all signs point to the race being winnable.

The poll itself actually doesn't even make Eastman look that weak, it just makes Bacon look strong. There's a big obsession with margins in polling even though vote share matters significantly more - Eastman is within the MOE of Biden whereas Bacon is outperforming Trump by a statistically significant margin.

Also I'm no fan of Justice Dem candidates (they generally suck at both comms and turnout) but blaming Eastman for her loss in 2018 is dishonest at best. Among Bacon, Eastman, the NRCC, and the DCCC, only one of those four acted as though the race wasn't competitive.

[Pollster]

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?

No. I simply noted that the DCCC's hatred (maybe the wrong word, let's go instead with clear apathy) for Eastman is hilarious, and that they're using this poll to send the message that she's a weak general election candidate who, if she wins, will probably do so on Biden's coattails. If I had to guess, they're setting themselves up to triage her again even though all signs point to the race being winnable.

The poll itself actually doesn't even make Eastman look that weak, it just makes Bacon look strong. There's a big obsession with margins in polling even though vote share matters significantly more - Eastman is within the MOE of Biden whereas Bacon is outperforming Trump by a statistically significant margin.

Also I'm no fan of Justice Dem candidates (they generally suck at both comms and turnout) but blaming Eastman for her loss in 2018 is dishonest at best. Among Bacon, Eastman, the NRCC, and the DCCC, only one of those four acted as though the race wasn't competitive.

Literally Eastman was the only non-DCCC progressive Democrat who won in a swing district in 2018, and the DCCC literally bailed on her district the morning after the primary (only to reverse that like a month before election day and say "oops!"). Given every single race since its new incarnation in 2012 has been within 5 points there (and 3 of the 4 have been within 2 points) and the general election was 6 months away at the time, it's hard to argue this was done for any reason other than disdain at having another loud-mouthed progressive in the mix ruining the party. Every congressional race is going to be decided by low single-digits here.

Did they even reverse that decision? I recall the last minute buy in the Omaha DMA being used to run ads for Axne.