GA : Trump leads everybody according to Mason Dixon (user search)
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  GA : Trump leads everybody according to Mason Dixon (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA : Trump leads everybody according to Mason Dixon  (Read 1789 times)
Pollster
YaBB God
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« on: January 09, 2020, 11:04:29 AM »

A few signs of a right-skewed sample here, and my guess is it has something to do with the educational attainment breakdown of the sample, which is not detailed in the report.

This poll has Trump doing about the same with independents as he did against Hillary when he won the state by a narrower margin than every head to head shows here. Abrams won independents by 10 points.

This poll has Trump keeping it fairly close among women and even leads Warren among women, which is a huge stretch. Clinton won women by 11, Abrams by 2 (the ÇNN numbers for gender in this race are a bit of a headscratcher all around) but regardless this type of performance would be a major deviation from national trends. A sign that college-educated voters (college-educated women perhaps especially) are underrepresented here.

I would guess Trump is ahead here by a handful of points, but not to the extent this poll posits. Ålso, if this sample is as skewed to the right as it seems, its an even bigger warning sign for Loeffler against Collins than originally though.
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Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,765


« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2020, 12:06:32 PM »

A few signs of a right-skewed sample here, and my guess is it has something to do with the educational attainment breakdown of the sample, which is not detailed in the report.

This poll has Trump doing about the same with independents as he did against Hillary when he won the state by a narrower margin than every head to head shows here. Abrams won independents by 10 points.

This poll has Trump keeping it fairly close among women and even leads Warren among women, which is a huge stretch. Clinton won women by 11, Abrams by 2 (the ÇNN numbers for gender in this race are a bit of a headscratcher all around) but regardless this type of performance would be a major deviation from national trends. A sign that college-educated voters (college-educated women perhaps especially) are underrepresented here.

I would guess Trump is ahead here by a handful of points, but not to the extent this poll posits. Ålso, if this sample is as skewed to the right as it seems, its an even bigger warning sign for Loeffler against Collins than originally though.


A sign of a left-skewed sample here

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Mason-Dixon_GA.pdf
DEMOGRAPHICSPARTY IDENTIFICATION:
Democrat    212 (34%) Republican   217 (35%) Independent or Other 196 (31%)

According to 2018 GA Governor Exit Poll, it was Democrat 33% Republican 38% Independent 28%

None of these are significant enough deviations - 33/38/28 D/R/I is well within the poll's margin of error.

Topline numbers also don't matter if the subsample is the problem, as it appears to be with independents.
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