2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Pollster]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority.  

Very true, but it was sort of in context of a recent topic. No, not wave proof, but a Democratic House approaching 260 is a far stronger majority than something closer to the mid-230s. It could potentially withstand 2022.

Having close to 260 just means more vulnerable seats to have to protect.

It does if the DCCC takes the NRSC approach to incumbent protection, but having lots of incumbency bonuses should be a net benefit for the caucus.

A larger majority also makes for faster/more ambitious lawmaking and if you're of the opinion that good governance can help an incumbent party, that's worth considering.

A 260 majority could also probably easily pass voting protections and redistricting reforms, which obviously won't stop a wave but eliminates many barriers Dems would face in 2022.

[Pollster]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

I was just in this district. Number of Biden signs I saw: 0. Number of Kennedy signs I saw: 0.

This is not the type of district I would expect to see a massive swing.

I'm gonna get specific here but I don't think lawn signs are really a good barometer right now. I haven't even gotten my sticker from the campaign yet so i doubt many people who ordered lawn signs have gotten them either...

I've seen more Trump signs in DC proper of all places than I have Biden signs.

[Pollster]

I mean theoretically Harrisons fundraising does help SC-01. Because if Harrison can bring out as many voters as he can to the SC race, that helps Cunningham.

In a high-turnout election like this, how many people would turn out just because of Harrison though? If these people were going to vote anyway, it's not Harrison causing it. It's pretty obvious that Trump, in one way or another, is causing a surge of interest in politics under his presidency.

Granted, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say there are small amounts of disillusioned Dem-leaning people in SC who may be pushed to vote because they think they have a chance at real representation in an otherwise conservative Republican-led state, but I doubt it's a game-changing amount.

It's not unlikely that Harrison's campaign will have a far more targeted and robust GOTV operation in the state than Biden's which probably won't spend much or anything here, that certainly helps down-ballot.

[Pollster]

Easy to see a difference considering that there are almost always imbalances in contested/uncontested House races. Also, some races just have stronger incumbents and/or weaker challengers, which may lead to the party not maximizing their potential in the district.

I'd actually find it surprising if it were to exactly match the presidential margin, but I expect it to strongly correlate. Enough so that you can say that people mostly vote for parties now, not candidates.

Yeah, particularly in 2008, when states like Arkansas, Mississippi, North Dakota, and South Dakota barely produced any Republican House votes and Dems won the House PV in Tennessee and West Virginia, mostly due to non-serious/no challengers in states McCain won handily.