TX-SEN: True to Form

[Pollster]

I've just completed a GCS poll of this race. Will post the results and analysis when I finish running the data.

[Pollster]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

[Pollster]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

I wish you the best of luck, but I'm skeptical that a 213 person survey is enough of a sample for a state as large as Texas.

You are correct. At my old firm, we have never done an analysis of Texas statewide with a sample smaller than 700, but I am spending my own money on these surveys to keep myself busy and I'm not looking to make massive investments. The MOE of this poll would be unacceptable in professional circumstances.

[Pollster]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

Despite being a Google Consumer Poll that actually looks like a pretty good snapshot of how things stand right now....

The original GCS data was manually weighted by me to 2016 Texas statewide turnout numbers. The raw data showed a slightly larger lead for Cruz. Respondents were also given the option to select "I am not likely or registered to vote" - all of those respondents were removed from the final sample so hypothetically this sample is of likely voters only.

[Pollster]

Texas may remain slightly out of reach for Dems in 2018 but should still 100% be contested at every level - strong candidates at the top of the ticket mixed with a powerful enough wave could have results down the ballot.

[Pollster]

O'Rourke raised over $10 million this quarter.

[Pollster]

Its flown somewhat under the radar how vulnerable the TX House is to a flip. Still a longshot, but the gerrymander is built to survive only a fairly small rise in Democratic turnout.