Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

I am getting impatient with Stacy Abrams, when is she getting nna to announce

Is our Queen alive?

Is it possible KLB runs in her place? That would explain the former not running 4 mayor again. Abrams may assume 2026 is a better opportunity than running a D-midterm. On the other hand, this could be a misscalcution if Biden wins reelection or Harris succeeds him. Either way 2026 would possibly be a worse midterm for Dems than 2022.

No. Stacey Abrams has universal name ID and will raise record breaking amounts of money almost instantly. Why rush out into the fire when she wait a few months before the GOP starts smearing her?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia Republicans say DOJ suit against voting law could give Kemp political boost

(CNN)The Justice Department is suing Georgia over the state's new voting restrictions -- and handing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who signed the changes into law earlier this year, a potential political boost ahead of his reelection bid.

Sources close to Kemp described the DOJ's actions as a positive development for the governor, who has spent months defending himself against Donald Trump and the former President's push to overturn the 2020 election results. Now, Kemp has a more preferable opponent: the Biden administration.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/25/politics/brian-kemp-georgia-doj-lawsuit/index.html

Interesting development and I actualy agree. For the first time in forever, the narrative is back to Kemp vs Dems/Biden/Abrams rather than Kemp vs Trump.

And it will also push Black folks to the polls for Abrams. So I'm here for it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I moved to the city of Atlanta earlier this year, I am voting for Dickens in the runoff.

Is Abrams running or what?

One of the D house reps was at a friend’s gathering last month and said she was. She’s selling a book and will be smeared by the national GOP the moment she gets in. She can wait until Q1 2022 surely. If she wasn’t running she would say so, she didn’t drag out the talks of a Senate run last cycle.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Why did he call him Brandon? Was it his awkward attempt at trying to take a crack at the Let's Go Brandon schtick?

Yes. LMFAO.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I know people who voted for Felicia Moore in the general because they believed she was the only person who could beat Kasim Reed even though they preferred Andre Dickens. So it makes sense she lost ground once the boogeyman of Kasim Reed was not an option.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think the national environment will make Democrats unable to win the governorship, but Abrams is an excellent candidate that knows how to campaign well, which will make it closer than any other name and lead to further victories downballot.

We are unfazed by the national environment. Even low information young voters know who she is and it's the general consensus (among voters who would lean Dem) that she was cheated out of the governorship in 2018. We are going to show up. What Biden and the Democratic Congress fail or succeed to do in Washington will not tamper our turnout.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I can’t wait to see what she raised in the first 24 hours. Her first day definitely toppled Beto.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The fact that the state GOP couldn’t stop this is telling.

I hope Kemp wins his primary though.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will Abrams win Glasscock county and the counties in the Northwest corner in the primary?

Yes, because no one is going to run against her.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I can't imagine Perdue running a campaign on the rhetoric that won Dems the Georgia Senate Runoffs will do him any favors in the general. Kemp would be stronger in the ATL suburbs and would be more competitive against Abrams.

January 2021 was a much better environment for Democrats than November of 2022 will be. Plus, Perdue didn't lose by very much. He's going to win the primary and general election.

2014 was a much better environment for the GOP than 2012, but Perdue won by a smaller margin than Romney. 2020 was a worse environment for Democrats than 2018, but Biden won the state even though Abrams didn't.

Georgia is immune to national trends. Stacey Abrams is well known by people who don’t even care about politics and people are/will be ready to show up for her. I don’t care what doom posters prognosticate about GA. This race is hers to lose.

Abrams should not be cocky either.

Tossup until the last vote is counted, and white Atlanta suburban voters could flip back to Republicans especially if Biden/Harris's approval ratings sink....even if Biden picks a Black woman to the Supreme Court if Breyer retires next year, the white female vote could offset the Black vote gains....

A lot of Republican voters will want to prove their not "racist" by electing Herschel....Herschel could help Perdue and GAGOPers...

Who is getting cocky?

They’re just saying sh*t. LOL. Abrams and her camp will not take any voter for granted and I believe will mobilize a GOTV program unlike anything we have ever seen both in Georgia and nationally. I’m so excited to witness it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yup, this is over. Moving it to Safe R.

Y’all will post anything…… this has nothing to do with Abrams and the people who run it are Brown organizers. Take up their use of “Latinx” with them.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1500694892892364801?s=21

Best case scenario for most of these people like Hall and Renita Shannon is to get Bailey into a runoff and be the "Black" candidate in a runoff electorate that will be older and Blacker than round 1.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Perdue probably going to get like 20 percent of the vote. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warnock needs to run a moderate campaign, attack Walker's past and not do campaign events with Abrams (who is cooked).

This is absolutely ridiculous.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will Mr. Trump endorse Abrams now?

Both have accused Kemp of rigging elections against them and refused to concede so…

Uh…. I hope you’re kidding because the two are not comparable at all…..

Concession and acknowledging that Brian Kemp was the legal victor are two different things. Stop.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Anyone care to fill me in on the differences between Hall and Bailey? I'm not really wedded to either one of them since I'm not quite sure what distinguishes them from each other, but I want to decide  before I vote in the runoffs. It looks like Bailey is the establishment choice, but I'm more interested in whether their actual positions differ meaningfully.

Bailey seems like a blank state who will tow Abrams’ line. Hall is a loose cannon perennial candidate. I would vote for Bailey none of them are particularly impressive.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thank God Kwanza Hall lost. He’s an idiot.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams raised $9.8M from May 1-June 30, compared to Kemp's $3.8m.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/abrams-builds-huge-financial-edge-over-kemp-in-2022/AOJSW2OBBRAJHMQCVFQ2YDWV4A/

I would imagine most is from out of state?

I know you thought you made a point here lol but I bet Abrams has more small dollar donors in Georgia than Brian Kemp. Let’s not act like BOTH aren’t getting huge donations from people outside of the state now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

So the music midtown incident has completely blown over as expected.  A non issue

What is your evidence for this..?

Right. The event is not happening. What is raging about it going to do about it? It doesn’t mean people that will lose income/opportunities over this won’t be thinking about that in October/November.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

Screw Kemp but he said this in 2018. Nobody that is voting for him cares.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Here is the link to watch the Governor's Debate that was earlier tonight...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtlU7Rkp7w

From what I've seen and read of the debate, it appears that Kemp won. Abrams is sinking fast, and she is going to lose by more than in 2018, which is what she deserves.

Here y’all go. LOL.

“The candidate I don’t like and disagree with on most, if not all issues lost the debate”

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is a pathetic answer by Abrams.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JJHunt10/status/1586863576899264513

The amount of officers in Georgia who have been caught on tape and social media spouting racial epithets doesn’t make this too far from reality and did you just sleep through the whole Ahmaud Arbery situation? I’m glad you’re able to pretend this is just hyperbole, for many people it’s real life.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I was on the GA SoS website looking at 2020 election results. It's lovely seeing the old Dem coalitions show up at the local level. So many uncontested Dem incumbents won local races across the Black Belt in toss-up and GOP leaning counties. The most eye popping Presidential to contested local deviations I saw: Jefferson County (Biden +7) re-elect their incumbent Democratic Coroner (D +43) and Sumter County (Biden +5) elect their first Black Sherriff (D +40).

If only things could be so fluid at the top of the ticket, but in those small communities reputation and relationships make a huge difference.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Probably the best county example from the ones above:

Glascock, 2012-14:
84.96% Romney, 13.17% Obama
79.97% Deal, 16.98% Carter

50% D, 50% R County Commission (2-2)
100% Countywide Offices Won by Ds (5-0)

Found more from 2020:
Lanier County voted Trump +42, but was D +9 for Sheriff.

Thomas County, Trump +19, D +15 for Sheriff

Decatur County, Trump +17, D +27 for Sheriff

In 2016, Long County was Trump +31 but voted D +58 for Sheriff - the D Tax Commissioner and Coroner won uncontested. All the incumbents ran as Republicans in 2020 though.

Sheriff is a pretty easy office to be non partisan, and honestly conservative whether you're D or not, as most Black voters in these areas have conservative views on law enforcement as well so it's not alienating them when these candidates run as unabashedly pro-law enforcement so it makes sense and obviously you can't get much more non partisan than death re: coroner's offices, so it makes sense that those are the last vestiges of Democratic strength in rural GA... fascinating to see.