GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Both GA sen races are as much competitive than MN sen or NH sen races, on the paper it looks competitive and it could be close, but it’s not really competitive.

Once again, this individual who doesn't even live in the United States, does not know the situation on the ground in Georgia.

Both Senate seats are "Lean R" and only because of the run-off rule. The dam might bust and Dems head straight over 50 percent without ever looking back.

Yeah, I'm supporting Ossoff now. He can probably raise way more money than Tomlinson. I still wish Abrams would step in and save us.

The eventual nominee is going to get a lot of money. The election is over a year out. Go to Cuthbert, Albany, Bainbridge, Jesup, or Brunswick GA and no one would know who the hell Jon Ossoff is and what he stands for.

Ossoff ain't it. Perdue wants to run against him. Tomlinson is tough and intelligent and will skewer him.

[Rookie Yinzer]

You love personal attacks ! Really, is it the only argument you have ? mUh, hE iS fRencH, hE doEsN’t LiVe oN tHe gRounD, bAd.

By the way your argument is stupid, I mean if some conservative dude who happen to live in MI tell you’’Trump will win MI in a landslide, because I live here, and all my friends support him.’’ Does it make Trump favoured to win MI ? No, of course. Because the friendship circle of this guy is not representative of the MI electorate. It’s the same thing for your argument, what your are seeing on the ground, the way your friends behave from a political perspective doesn’t make GA a swing state (at least not yet) because the place where you’re living and the people you encounter are not necessarily representative of the GA electorate.

Stating that you don't live in America (which is true) is a personal attack? K.

And I'm not just some dude making statements about who my friends voted for. My opinions are based in data, reason, and logic. Like I said, you're not here and you don't know the work being done from the state level down to the precinct level to make sure this state goes blue. You don't know what rooms I've sat in having these discussions and who was in them. LOL. GA is very competitive and I'll be here on Election Night 2020 helping you pick your jaw off the floor when both Senate seats go Democratic.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The problem is that your are not giving counter arguments

GA's electorate is growing more non-white and these voters overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates (they voted 85-14 for the Democratic nominee for Governor) they were 40 percent of the electorate in 2018 and by all estimations will be 42 percent of the electorate in 2020. Not to mention the fact that Republicans are maxed out in rural GA and Trump is likely to do worse than Kemp in Metro Atlanta.

There.

Trump is not going to win the state by more than 2 points. It's not Likely R and neither are the Senate seats.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yikes!

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1184128870737502210

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sad to see Georgia slipping into a red Hell like Virginia before it. How long before they elect a communist Lenin wannabe like Abrams as governor or senator? Who knows, but I don't think it will happen in 2020. All I know is that if I lived there, I'd be getting the hell out when it does happen and the state becomes Illinois 2.0.

Just wait until me and my family and friends move there (a growing possibility by the day). It'll be +9 D votes. :-)

Currently trying to get my friend (she’s an Emory student) to convince her family to move here. LOL. They’re Ethiopian. Have really tried to sell them on the immense diversity in Metro Atlanta. California is getting to expensive for them.

Oh and #TeamTomlinson

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1184153285701394433

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hang on.  That $925k total--is that just this quarter, or this and last together?

I didn't watch the video in the tweet until now, after watching the video. She definitely said this was money raised "to date".

Kind of "Yikes!" for me, but not as bad as Terry. And Amico probably self-funded a lot of her haul *no way in hell she raised $700k with how little known she is and how quiet she's been since getting in* ; Ossoff is nationally known so her total is just reflective of how the Resistance isn't taking GA seriously because Perdue is not as known or polarizing as the Turtle and Lindsey Graham. Still believe she will win the nomination!

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1184167785808760838

[Rookie Yinzer]

She is lying, she raised only 400k in Q3.

She was spinning, not lying, that's what Trump and Perdue do.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1184211289461137408

Yikes, I take back the nice things I said earlier.  If she's gone two quarters and hasn't yet gotten to $1 million, that's terrible. I still think she'd be a better candidate than Osoff and I'll keep making my monthly donation, but Tomlinson has got to start bringing in more money.

I agree. We'll see. Her entire senior staff is comprised of black women, and from what I've heard that's the primary demographic they're targeting. Notice many of her primary endorsements save Roy Barnes have come from black civil rights leaders and black mayors of cities south of the Fall Line. Ossoff is a Fyre Festival candidate coasting on his name rec and email list from 2017.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yikes, I take back the nice things I said earlier.  If she's gone two quarters and hasn't yet gotten to $1 million, that's terrible. I still think she'd be a better candidate than Osoff and I'll keep making my monthly donation, but Tomlinson has got to start bringing in more money.

I agree. We'll see. Her entire senior staff is comprised of black women, and from what I've heard that's the primary demographic they're targeting. Notice many of her primary endorsements save Roy Barnes have come from black civil rights leaders and black mayors of cities south of the Fall Line. Ossoff is a Fyre Festival candidate coasting on his name rec and email list from 2017.

And yet https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-senate-ossoff-lands-endorsements-from-black-officials/pRarbApEkqVGRrNolKWxjP/

And that's wonderful for him. I didn't say Ossoff was hurting for black endorsements I said that black women, especially those downstate, are what Tomlinson's team plan to court the hardest. My comment on Ossoff was about his thin resume and only being relevant because of 2017. His endorsements from Lewis and Johnson were solely about superficial reasons like name rec and fundraising (which is fine, primaries are about putting forth who you think is most competitive), but there's nothing in his background that he can tout to black voters about why they should vote for him.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Don't get me wrong. I think Osoff is a joke and on paper Tomlinson should be wiping the floor with him. But her campaign is just not doing what it needs to do, which sucks because I really like her. There's still time to turn things around, but if it doesn't happen soon she may as well start planning her 2022 Lieutenant Governor run.

We are definitely on the same page! I am hosting a fundraiser for her next month and plan on canvassing every weekend once those opportunities become available.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Money doesn’t vote.

If it did Cagle would have steamrolled folks in the GOP Gubernatorial Primary and probably be Governor. But it doesn’t and he’s not.

Ossoff is formidable but Resistance Twitter is not going to buy him the nomination.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1186235489600397314

[Rookie Yinzer]

But, according to the article I've linked below, this primary is turning out to be quite nasty, which will only help Perdue.

Nobody is paying attention to this. The campaign manager made this comment from her personal Facebook. I'm pretty sure, she will act accordingly and safeguard her page/avoid discussion of other candidates. This was not coming from the campaign or the candidate.

Tomlinson is out working hard and doing outreach. Ossoff is not the shoe-in that non-Georgians think he is.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Teresa lost her campaign manager, field director, and digital director....

The campaign is now going to be run through a consulting firm....

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-senate-several-top-tomlinson-deputies-leave-campaign/gbrRGS9WgwWz2lxzf1PhVL/

I see this is her attempt at a reboot, she is adding pink to her branding so I guess she’s trying to lean in on being a woman:

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1215084341174423553?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1219254894974119936

Kemp is not getting 60 percent of the vote but go off. Y'all will believe what you want until it happens and then you'll either pretend you saw it coming or blame the candidate like Trump does.

Abrams is going to raise a sh**t-ton of money in 2022 and huge press that will draw out loads of low propensity POC. The only faction of her coalition she has to worry about is keeping college ed whites in the suburbs as D as they are now. Non-white voters are going to be more of the electorate than they were in 2018, period.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Terry probably had sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Terry probably had sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

You're dreaming

I'm dreaming by saying Warnock is going to be the stronger of the two Senate candidates? um, ok.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Has Abrams offered an endorsement in this race?  What about McBath?  Michelle Nunn?  Any chance one of these women would throw her support to Tomlinson?

No. Tomlinson’s campaign is a mess. She is going to have win it on her own.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Entirely possible that Tomlinson's strategy is coasting through the first round by relying on her regional base, before ramping up for the runoff.

Bad strategy imo, but it could work.

Will there even be a run off? If Ossoff is leading that big I'm sure his lead in Metro Atlanta where he has infrastructure from 2017 and high name rec is even higher. He will probably get over 50 percent on Election Night.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1250440612261679104?s=20

Teresa Tomlinson raised $600k and Amico raised $168k. I’m voting for Ossoff. National Dems may still abandon this race with him but they’re definitely avoiding us with the other two.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1250537202746044416?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

I mean... who did GA have besides Abrams, McBath, and maybe Carter?

[Rookie Yinzer]

It looks like this primary is finally starting to take normal shape, as we're getting now daily reports of ad buys from both Ossoff and Tomlinson. Only Amico seems to still be dark.

Any Georgians have any idea what the campaigns look like on the ground, to the extent that on the ground campaigns are possible?

I've seen Jon on television, I haven't been reached out to by any campaign for volunteering. From what I've seen on social media, Ossoff has been the most aggressive about recruiting virtual volunteers, but who knows how many people are actually biting.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If we go to a run off between her and Ossoff it's going to get nasty. Her high profile surrogates and staff have very colorful language about Ossoff's candidacy.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I finally did my absentee ballot yesterday and just went ahead and voted for Tomlinson. I think she’s going to get blown out after the latest round of polling so I might as well vote for who was closest to me on policy!

The final margin will be interesting but the past week has shown Tomlinson is desperate to pull him under 50 and he is already looking toward November and pumped an extra $450k of his own money into the campaign to shut this thing down Tuesday.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I finally did my absentee ballot yesterday and just went ahead and voted for Tomlinson. I think she’s going to get blown out after the latest round of polling so I might as well vote for who was closest to me on policy!

The final margin will be interesting but the past week has shown Tomlinson is desperate to pull him under 50 and he is already looking toward November and pumped an extra $450k of his own money into the campaign to shut this thing down Tuesday.

..... so if you don't mind me asking, why wouldn't you rather help Ossoff blow past 50 so he doesn't have to deal with another primary? It would make it a hell of a lot easier for him to win in Nov if he didn't have to deal with another runoff.

I've told everyone who has asked me who to vote for to vote for Ossoff. If my one *quietly cast* vote for Tomlinson sends this thing to a run off, my bad y'all.