Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/MikeDunston/status/1122946830680121348

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/jeffzeleny/status/1123061459917918209

Moving from Toss Up to Lean R.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m sad.

I knew deep down Abrams prefers to be an executive but had hoped she had been swayed to run by a commitment from national leadership to prioritize GA in 2020. Guess Ossoff and Sarah Riggs Amico jump in the Senate race too.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m sad.

I knew deep down Abrams prefers to be an executive but had hoped she had been swayed to run by a commitment from national leadership to prioritize GA in 2020. Guess Ossoff and Sarah Riggs Amico jump in the Senate race too.

Yuck. Hopefully Tomlinson just gets a cleared field. Who do you prefer?

Tomlinson is far and away the most competent and prepared to do the job. And not that she would have a choice after 2018 but she definitely embraced Abrams model for flipping GA vs the Roy Barnes/Stacey Evans crew. Georgia Dems should coalesce around her now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m sad.

I knew deep down Abrams prefers to be an executive but had hoped she had been swayed to run by a commitment from national leadership to prioritize GA in 2020. Guess Ossoff and Sarah Riggs Amico jump in the Senate race too.

Click on the tweet to read the thread:

https://twitter.com/SarahRiggsAmico/status/1123344434924589058

[Rookie Yinzer]

But yes, this forum grossly underestimates GA’s ability to flip in 2020, and one could make a strong case for why it should be up there with WI/Mi/PA/AZ in discussions about being the tipping point state. It’d be foolish to assume Abrams is the new max for GA Dems in metro Atlanta after everyone thought that was the case for Clinton’s strong performance in 2016.

The blood red rural counties had much stronger turnout than say the South Suburbs (Clayton, Henry, Douglas, Newton, Rockdale) where the constituency is ripe with young low propensity black voters who may have skipped the midterms and Kemp still only eked it out 50-49. I don't see where Trump outperforms Kemp but there are plenty of places (nice and densely populated) where PresDem outperforms Abrams and closes the gap. We get our Presidential turnout in these places + maintain what we did in Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, and it's over for Trump.

Perdue will only be saved by a run-off but I can certainly see SenateDem getting more votes than him on Election Night. But hopefully the dam just breaks and we get over 50 comfortably.

In short, Gwinnett is a complete dumpster fire for the GOP and they're losing their grip on all levels of power in the county. Danny Porter running for reelection as a Dem is the only way he can hold the office short of a Dem qualifying failure.

This post was glorious to read and it explains why Gwinnett was rejecting absentee ballots left and righ and forgetting power cords in the blackest precincts in the county on Election Day.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Big question is whether the GA Dems will win back some of the judicial statewide offices ?

Ken Hodges (2010 Dem nominee for AG) won a Court of Appeals seat last year pretty easily. Folks probably just picked his name because it was the first one on the ballot.

John Barrow will probably win in a cakewalk. There won't be attention to it in the midst of the presidential race, Senate race, and congressional primaries (especially in GA-07). He's running against a woman, his name is John, and he will be listed first. So it's pretty biased in his favor.

How will the Supreme Court election look as Barrow is running?

Judicial races are officially nonpartisan, so it depends on whether the candidates and parties decide they want to make it seem partisan on the campaign trail. Recent judicial elections here show that (thankfully, imo) that isn't the case. In that case, Barrow may make it on name recognition, but I don't know.

Frankly, I think this race will probably get lost in the noise of the 2020 presidential primaries and the Senate race.

Who are the GOP candidates or the potential candidates.

Court of Appeals Judge Sara Doyle

ETA: Tomlinson made an awesome hire. Abrams 2018 Finance Director/Deputy Campaign Manager Edana Walker joined her team.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp won the 74% of the White Vote yet won the state by only 1.4%. Wow

Kemp also did 10 points better with Latinos than Donald Trump who we have no reason to believe will make inroads with that group in the next 18 months. But GA is supposed to be Likely R. Lmao.

Bit late but I wonder when the GOP is going to try to stop the bleeding some in Gwinnett. I guess the play will be to start making inroads with Latinos. By 2030, it's going to be the most populous county in the state and it just keeps getting bluer with every day. It says a lot about how much the state is changing that Cobb is a loss for the GOP now and it's where their most raw votes come from.  They're not going to be able to win much longer with Gwinnett becoming so D, the math's just not there.

The GOP is done statewide. Abrams is coming for that seat in 2022. Their only hope is to hunker down in 2020 with the legislative map so that they can manipulate the maps to keep the Dem Gov in check for at least the next decade.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Michael Owens is giving David Scott (GA-13) another Primary challenge. Anyone out there think he can get him out this time?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just heard Tomlinson in Walton County. Amazing! Enthusiastically endorsed!